Perry / Oliveira
Perry is a very likable guy, he has his personality and that's why he signed a 4 fight deal with the UFC recently despite being 1-3 in his last 4 fights. But his personality is what maked him losing fight he never should have lost in my opinion, he is going to crazy and too excited and he don't fight smart at all sometimes.
That's why fighters like him even though they know how to fight and have the better physical and technical abilities to win, they end up loosing the fight because they dont think enough when they're fighting. One example, last fight against Cerrone he was winning the first round for me, he took him down and we know that Perry is not the best on the ground, but he still decided to stay on the ground and not get up and stay on the feet where he was touching him. Results, he stay on the ground with Cowboy and got submitted at the end of round 1.
And talking about this fight, Perry if I remember was like a 1.40~1.50 favorite against Cowboy. Now in his next fight 5 months later against Oliveira he is ~ 2.50 underdog. Why? Yes I know why because bookmakers are garbage that's why
Ok Oliveira has submission skills but it's overrated by the guys honestly, Condit, Gunnar Nelson and some others managed to take his back on the ground abd he already been submited in his career and not only once. When I see people talking about this fight I feel like we are talking about a Gracie or something, honestly I dont think Oliveira is that good on the ground and that it will be a huge factor in this fight.
Because Perry is short for weightclass and has some solid takedown defense, Oliveira is not a fighter that shoot for a single or a double leg, he has not really good wrestling but he does have pretty good greco roman wrestling, which mean that he mostly take down his opponent with clinch with full body lock. Now do I think he will be able to take Perry down honestly no, maybe if Perry is really tired but I've seen Oliveira gasing out too in the past.
But Oliveira's submission game can be effective if he is taken down by Perry because I think Perry's wrestling is underated and he could definitely take Oliveira down, now Oliveira can be dangerous on his back and Perry ground game is not very good but all in all I think the submission win about Oliveira for me is too much and I dont think there is that much chance that it will happen to be honest.
Now the odds @7 on the decision win is mostly because the fight goes to the decision is at 3.40. Which I think is too much because I think bookmaker are mostly relying on the fact that both are finisher blabla but dont look at the stats in MMA stats means nothing, you have to look at the fights in himself. And Perry has a very good chin and got got by a submission in his last fight but it was the only one of his career. Oliveira has good chin too, I've seen him taking good shots in the past, he was wobbling a little bit but he still managed to stay on his feet, but I still think that the most dangerous way of this fight finishing before the limit is if Perry catch Oliveira with a good punch, which is possible in my opinion.
But overall I think both will go at it, both are not afraid of throwing punches so of course a stoppage can happen but a decision is not that unlikely for me and Perry even though he lost most of his decision I think in this one he can take it, by having the most significant shots and taking Oliveira down like Nelson did. For me a decision win for Perry is not worth a odds @7. I think this is again a garbage odds from bookmakers