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Omonia Nicosia - Red Star Belgrade    (won)

First of all, I want to say that I expect 0: 0 result at halftime here and I would be really surprised if we see any goals in the first half. Before continuing with the analysis, I want to invite you to enter in my free Facebook group "Betting Revolution". 

Omonia can be really tricky when they playing at Cyprus and in their last 12 European qualifier games (since 2011) at home they were defeated just 2 times (record 7-3-2). In the first two rounds they eliminated Legia and Ararat-Armenia, both times as guests and both times after extra time (both games ended 0:0 after 90 minutes). They played 3 games in their domestic league and recorded 1 win and 2 draws. This means they are undefeated this season so far.

Their coach, Henning Berg, at the press conference said: “We have analyzed our opponent, we know quite a lot about them. They have good players, but they are also good collectively, not just individually. They have players who can make the difference. We are focusing on how they perform as a team. The key to the game is for us to be very good defensively and stay organized. If we don’t’ defend well we will not be able to qualify”

Crvena Zvezda managed to enter the Champions League group two times in a row and they are looking for the 3rd participation this season. They defeated Europa FC (5:0) and Tirana (0:1) in the first two rounds. They are performing well so far and they have all 9 wins this season but I can see them struggling today. First of all, the weather could be a problem for them because 37-38°C and around 40% humidity is expected. That's not whether they are used to in Belgrade. The second problem for them could be the attacker position. Nikola Krstovic (att 2/1) has COVID-19, while Boakye (att 3/0) and Pavkov (att 0/0) are injured. They sold Tomane (att 4/1) to Samsun while Diego Falcinelli is their new signing. Falcinelli signed just a few days ago and his fitness is under the question. Also, we are speaking about a player who scored just 3 goals in the past 2 seasons!? Winger Aleksa Vukanovic probably will start as an attacker in this game (he played just 130 minutes this season so far). They also had problems with their both back and wingers. Rodic, Gobeljic, Katai, and Ben all have been injured and doubtful before this trip to Cyprus but all of them should start. I read that Rodic will play this game under injections. The game against Tirana showed how Crvena Zvezda can struggle when someone is defending well and playing on counter attacks (in that game they scored luckily goal after corner in the 62nd minute).

Possible lineup: Borjan - Gobeljić, Degenek, Milunović, Rodić - Sanogo, Jovančić, Ben, Kanga, Katai - Vukanović

Conclusion: I can imagine Omonia playing defensively and relying on counter-attacks while Crvena Zvezda should be unable to score a goal at least in the first half. Zvezda have problems with attacker position and also their backs and wings shouldn't be 100% ready for today. I really expect one tactical and boring first half and everything except 0:0 will be a big surprise. The last time these teams met in the qualifications was in 2012 and both games ended 0:0. Good luck!
Published: 16-09-2020, 11:50 CET Pick: HT X
Odds: 1.9 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: European football
Date: 16-09-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 8)




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