PSG vs Aston Villa    (won)

Paris arrive at the Super Cup with underwhelming preparation results, after a 3-0 defeat to Mallorca and a 1-1 draw with Manchester United. Against United, Luis Enrique started with only Kvaratskhelia among several of his main attacking references and left names such as Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha and João Neves on the bench. For the Super Cup, however, UEFA’s official squad list once again includes almost the entire core, with Hakimi, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, João Neves, Dembélé, Doué, Kvaratskhelia and Barcola available.

The match-up with Aston Villa points towards a game with conditions for chances at both ends. Emery’s side lost important pieces for ball control and progression over the summer, such as Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne, and also arrive without Amadou Onana and Manzambi. This is especially relevant against a PSG side that looks to trap opponents through counter-pressing, create positional superiorities inside and then release the wingers into 1v1 situations. Without Tielemans and Onana, Villa may have more difficulty escaping consistently through the central corridor, increasing the risk of losing the ball in dangerous areas, where Dembélé, Doué or Kvaratskhelia can attack a disorganised defence.

Villa, however, still have very dangerous attacking solutions, with Watkins, Garnacho, Abraham, Guessand and Buendía. There is enough speed and ability to attack space to exploit what remains a structural risk for PSG: very advanced full-backs, many players close to the ball and space available behind the first press. If Emery’s team manage to bypass that initial pressure, Watkins and Garnacho can find room to run against the centre-backs.

In pre-season, Villa beat Walsall 5-0, lost 2-1 to Porto and Bayern, played out a 4-2 against Real Sociedad and won both matches on their Asian tour by 3-1. These results show a team capable of producing offensively, but also one exposed to games with tempo, transitions and chances in both boxes.

Because this is a final, there is always the risk that the first 20 or 25 minutes are more controlled. Even so, the natural state of the match favours transitions and attacking volume. PSG should be able to force Villa to defend for long periods, but the English side have too many threats in behind to assume that Paris will fully control every loss of possession. In addition, an opening goal could significantly change the game, with the team that falls behind forced to respond.

Fair Odd 1.80@