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Padres - Mariners    (lost)

Another miraculous bad beat here? Perhaps, but that does not mean that this line is correct and i will show you why..

LHP Nick Margevicius will start on the mound for the Pads. Showed good stuff in spring and started the season well, but he he is coming from an enormous whooping as he allowed 5 runs at home against the Rox. Have to say that he did not pitch that bad, but he is this season 1-2 with a 3.60 ERA and he pitched even a little worse> 3.80 xFIP.

San Diego Pads bullpen > 4.08 ERA.

Pads have a solid pitching staff and their park is pitching friendly indeed. However, there are other things that we have to take into consideration.

1) Mariners are a monsterous hitting team. They are the best hitting team on the road> .398 wOBA with ridicilous power> .288 ISO

2) Mariners are the BEST team hitting lefties > .414 wOBA (!) and with hulkish power > .328 ISO

3). Margevicius uses basically four pitches. The Four-seamer, slider, curve and the changeup. Mariners are 2nd against the FB, 3rd against the slider and 3rd against the changeup, so they basically crush all those pitches.

Over 3.5 line is wrong, should be 4.0 at least altough 4.5 would be normal here.

Published: 23-04-2019, 16:24 CET Pick: Over 3.5 Mariners
Odds: 1.86 at Pinnacle


Category: MLB baseball
Date: 24-04-2019
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)




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