Unbelievable odds, really, this is huge value. The offer was opened with Partizan being 1.70 favorite, then slashed at some bookies even below 1.60 while now on game day, it's 2.10 + on home win. So, what's the story about this game.
There is no some big problems in Partizan squad, so that's not the reason for this odds movement. They have Ostojic in defense who is dealing with injury earned against Malatyaspor (first game), but he was in the srarting 11 in second leg in Turkey. Ostojic missed two rounds in Serbian league in the mean time in aim to be in best possible condition for European games. I believe he is going to play. Ozegovic (second striker option) supposedly had to move to Rosenborg but it turned out this transfer is not yet finalized, so he is still here. After games with Malatyaspor, Partizan has brought new player. It's Bibras Natkho, the captain of Israeli national team. This is really big singing. Partizan was lucky that Natkho was a free agent, so there wasn't transfer fee, they just had to agree player's salary. Natkho was last season in Olympiakos, before that many years in CSKA Moscow where he has played too many Champions League games. By some expectation, Bibras Natkho will take some part in today's game, most likely the second half.
The bottom line about Partizan squad, that's not the reason for these odds.
Maybe people respect too much the fact Molde is the leader in Norway. But honestly, I don't think they are the best team there, even if win the title. Rosenborg is the best/greatest club. But Rosenborg had poor start of the season while now when they are entering in to final third of the season, seems like Rosenborg is again the team in best form. And by the way, we saw how Rosenborg manage yesterday in nearby Zagreb, not so good. Partizan is slightly below Dinamo Zagreb level but basically that's pretty much similar quality.
It's true Molde in one of previous rounds was successful against another Serbian team, Cukaricki, 0:0 at home and then 1:3 road win in Serbia. But Partizan is very different level compared with Cukaricki who is just small club from the capital city. That's the same as you would compare in England some of greatest London clubs (Arsenal, Chelsea...) with Crystal Palace or Fulham. So, all credits for Molde previous success in Serbia, I watched both games against Cukaricki, but Partizan is way tougher opponent.
The only reason for this move could be the fact the game is without fans. Partizan is banned again by UEFA. Really funny reason for this penalty. In any case, it's not typical "behind closed door" game. The kids (till 14 y.o.) are allowed but only if they are from any football school. The kids from all over Serbia are coming to the capital city, so who knows, maybe we see few thousands on the stands.
Pity, the full crowd would be helpful for Partizan cause seems this Molde team is not get used to play in such conditions with super noisy fans. The previous round in Thessaloniki was the best example when Molde barely saved big 3:0 advantage from the first leg. It was 3:0 for Aris in second leg and then Molde passed through thanks to the goal in additional 30 minutes. I didn't watch but I assume what kind of atmosphere Aris' fans created. So, it's pity for Partizan they won't have the help from their fans, but I still don't see this fact to be valid reason for this great move in odds. For me everything above 2.00 on home win in nice value.