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Pavlychenkova V.S. Zadensek    (won)

Pavlychenkova is in the semi's against Tamara Zedansk for the first match in H2H.  Pavlychenkova has beaten Sabalenka, Azerenka and Ryvbakina to get here, while Tamara has beaten Badosa and an injured Andreescu.  

The projected odds have the Russian as a 62.3% favorite to the Slovenian.  While I understand that Pavlychenkova has spent a lot of time on court (the most out of anyone in the tournament thus far), I do not think that these odds are just.  Tamara has shown great fight and solid form thus far but the quality of her opponents and the "big match" implications she's encountered along the way remain questionable.  In terms of odds: The Russian has been an underdog in 3 of her 5 matches here and the matches of which she was the dog, she won in 3 sets.  Conversely, Zidansek has been a dog in 2 of her 5 matches, winning one in 3 sets, the other in 2.  In examining the Winner/Unforced Error ratio, Pavlychenkova has amassed a total of 155/118 (57% winner to 43% Unforced Errors).  Zadensek has amassed a total of 128/160 (44% winners to 66% Unforced Errors).

Starling Says: When the numbers have been supporting a pattern of upsets in 5 out of six occasions to create a scenario featuring two previous dog winners, one being of considerably higher rank and having played considerably higher ranked opponents and has played this exact match (FO Semi's 10 years ago) it's no brainer.  The Russian will move on to contest for the trophy at Rolland Garros.
Published: 10-06-2021, 11:24 CET Pick: Pavlychenkova - ML
Odds: 1.62 at William Hill


Category: WTA tennis
Date: 10-06-2021
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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