Not to take anything away from Pavly as she's been playing some great stuff lately but I just love what Zidansek has been doing on clay for a while now, here especially. Here she's been incredibly resilient but also aggressive and brave when needed and she cant be underdog coming into this one.
Now, so just so that this isnt just a pick on my gut feeling, if it goes the distance it will be a physically demanding match in which case Tamara should have the upper hand.
Pavly not really known for her endurance and she played 3 consecutive 3 setters here and did herself no favors by being involved in the doubles today, 2 hours on court, lost in 3. Yeah its doubs but on clay, in normal format and a gs qf, not some practice match.
She lost her day off to recover properly which should show if this goes over 2 hours.
Also she still hasn't faced a "proper" claycourter here, Sabalenka, Azarenka, Rybakina,..all good but not the kind of players or the kind of balls she's going to see here.
Zidansek is very effective at working the points, opening the court, probing angles before going for the killer shot...so Pavly is gonna have a lot of ground to cover if she's not aggressive and executing well of the first ball. Something thats easy to say, harder to do given the occasion, we'll see, she could look worse in this type of matchup which would be a bonus.
also @9+ for Zidansek to win the whole thing, for me easy value as I dont see her much worse than 50/50 in any of the potential remaining matchups..would really love her against Sakkari in the final as that would be a balanced match, not so much against Krejcikova who kind of scares me but at those odds sure