Plymouth Argyle vs Exeter City    (lost)

Plymouth missed out on the League One playoffs by only two points last season. The team found a clear rhythm towards the end of the campaign, remaining unbeaten in their final six league matches and losing only once across the last 12 rounds. That stability continued throughout the summer, with Plymouth recording five wins and one draw from six pre-season friendlies, scoring 13 goals and conceding only two. Their only match without a victory was a goalless draw against Championship side Bristol City. In contrast, newly-relegated League Two club Exeter managed only one win, one draw and two defeats from four friendlies, including losses against non-league opponents Truro City and Torquay United. Their match sharpness and squad cohesion have both been far less convincing.

Although this is only the opening round of the EFL Cup, the importance of the Devon Derby means that Plymouth are taking the fixture seriously. Head coach Tom Cleverley has stressed that his side must maintain its physical intensity, pressing and speed in transition rather than allowing the emotion of the derby to disrupt its structure. Exeter have sold all 1,701 tickets allocated to their travelling supporters, while Plymouth have encouraged their fans to wear green. The atmosphere should therefore be intense, with no concerns over the home side’s motivation.

Plymouth do not have a completely healthy squad. Michael Baidoo requires surgery and is expected to be sidelined for around 12 weeks, while Jack MacKenzie remains approximately three weeks away from returning to full training. Caleb Watts is likely to need another two weeks, and Tegan Finn has only recently resumed training, making his involvement doubtful. However, captain Joe Edwards is expected to return to the matchday squad, strengthening Plymouth’s organisation in midfield and defence while also restoring an important leader to the dressing room.

Plymouth lost Lorent Tolaj, who scored 18 goals last season, but the club reacted quickly by signing 29-year-old striker Will Evans from Mansfield Town. Evans has scored 50 goals across the past three seasons and still managed 10 last term. He possesses pace, works aggressively without the ball and can operate either as a central target man or as a runner attacking the space behind the defence. If his registration is completed in time, he could partner Aribim Pepple in attack. Pepple has already scored 15 goals across all competitions in 2026, and the movement, physicality and direct running of the two forwards should allow Plymouth to place Exeter’s unsettled defence under constant pressure.

Exeter’s relegation has been followed by a major breakup of their first-team core. The players who left the club this summer accounted for 62% of Exeter’s total league minutes last season. That group includes Ilmari Niskanen, who played more minutes than any other outfield player, as well as Whitworth, Brierley, MacMillan and captain Pierce Sweeney. By comparison, Plymouth’s departing players accounted for approximately 36% of last season’s minutes, giving the hosts significantly greater continuity. Exeter head coach Matt Taylor has even admitted publicly that almost half of his current squad are not yet at the required League Two standard.

Visiting centre-back Ed Turns remains a long-term absentee, leaving Exeter with very limited room to adjust defensively. They could use a back three with Andrew Oluwabori and Gwion Edwards operating as wing-backs, but both players are naturally closer to wingers than full-backs. If they advance too far, Plymouth should be able to exploit the space behind them. Switching to a conventional back four would not necessarily solve the problem, as Exeter lack enough experienced natural full-backs and would remain vulnerable in wide areas.

Exeter are not completely without attacking threat. Jayden Wareham scored 19 goals for a relegated team last season from 102 shots and an expected-goals total of 16.34. Wareham and Reece Cole were responsible for 51% of Exeter’s league goals between them. The visitors are therefore likely to reduce their emphasis on midfield construction and instead use direct passes, crosses and set pieces to find Wareham. However, this approach is relatively predictable. If Plymouth score first and force Exeter to expand their shape, the spaces in the visitors’ defence should become even larger.

Set pieces are another important advantage for Plymouth. Exeter conceded 22 goals from dead-ball situations last season, the third-worst record in League One, while Plymouth can call upon Harvey White and Ronan Curtis as quality set-piece takers. With Exeter’s defensive personnel significantly weakened, corners and wide free kicks could become one of Plymouth’s clearest routes to goal.

Overall, Plymouth hold the advantage in quality, squad depth, pre-season form, continuity, home atmosphere and recruitment. Exeter retain a dangerous finisher in Wareham, which gives them a realistic chance of scoring, but their rebuilt defence is unlikely to withstand Plymouth’s pressure for the entire match.

PICK： Over 3