Portsmouth vs Derby County    (lost)

Portsmouth have played four official matches and all of them have gone over 2.5 goals. They have scored in all four, but they have also conceded 11 goals, and they are not managing to balance the number of players they commit ahead of the ball with protection after losing possession.

Derby started with a 2-1 defeat to Lincoln in the cup, a 2-1 defeat to Charlton, a draw in which they came from behind twice against Cardiff, and then a 3-0 defeat to Swansea. Their latest attacking performance was poor, with zero shots on target against Swansea, and that is a real risk for the Over. But they also allowed 12 shots in that match. In other words, we do not necessarily need Derby to be brilliant on the ball for the game to reach three goals; Portsmouth have already shown they can both contribute offensively and concede volume.

Portsmouth have gone through an important rebuild, with nine confirmed arrivals, including Eoin Kenny, Marko Milovanović, Abu Kamara, Ryan Kavuma-McQueen and Iyad Mohamed. Derby have also changed quite a lot in attack and midfield, adding Bobby Clark, Sammie Szmodics, Alex Mowatt, Filip Bilbija and Ryan Hedges. These are teams still forming automatisms, which, for me, weighs more against defensive stability than against the individual ability to create danger.