Qarabag had a golden chance to win vs Tottenham but did not take it. They then travelled home to face title contender Sabah, in a 3-2 win. Impressive squad management. Now at home, they will face Malmö who also lost in the opening round. Qarabag in my view have been sloppy defensively, as otherwise they would have actually beaten Zagreb in the playoff for CL. Think they are very capable and play in an uncomfortable way for many opponents.
Malmö have aside from discarding a "pre season" PAOK side, not done well in Europe in terms of performances. It is the first year in Europe under coach Rydström and he has failed in being cynical, and perhaps too naive. This works well in the league but in Europe they get severely punished for their style of play. We have gotten many proof concepts of this against Prague twice and Rangers, who won 0-2 but could have been 0-5 judging by the chances. Malmö are now 0-0-7 in their last European group stage matches.
On paper, these are two of the lowest valued teams in the tournament. Qarabag will have good memories of Swedish opponents being 5-0-1 all time. Typically a good match (style wise) against Swedish teams.
Conclusion: I think that Qarabag away is a bad match for Malmö. It's a long trip, and they have not been having a positive European record lately. Qarabag are solid at home and at nearly double the price, I'll go for the hosts here. I sense a bit of arrogance from the Swedish team think this is an esier task than what it is, and they can be in for a surprise.
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