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TheStarling
 
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Raiders V.S. Falcons    (lost)

Good value in this ML as of right now.  These are two teams heading in opposite directions.  Normally I wouldn't glance twice at a Raider road game however, this season the Raiders on the road have been money in the bank.  To add to the Atlanta calamity, the team continues to be decimated by injuries.  Julio Jones is questionable (most likely out - didn't practice on Friday) and so is Hayden Hurst.  Todd Gurley is out and Matt Ryan will be without any weapons against a stark Raider defense.  

Several key factors that lead me to this position include: 
1) The Raiders have out perform the Falcons in almost every statistical category on both offense and defense.
2) Both these teams have played three mutual opponents, where the Raiders have won and covered all three, the Falcons have won 2 and covered 1.
3) Last week against the QB-less Saints the Falcons were anemic on offense.  This week little has changed in terms of their injury report.
4) The avg. power ranking of opponents played are 21.9 and 18.9 respectively with the Raiders playing a better quality of opponents, a better road record than home and a better overall record than the Falcons.

Starling Says: The Raiders are the better team, however these two teams are not as far apart as the books suggest.  I expect this to be an up and down game, however these are not the Raiders of old.  Last week Matt Ryan seemed to have quit.  This week should be easier on him but I don't think the competitive juices are flowing in the Atlanta locker room.  I like the Raiders to reel off two wins in a row in the coming weeks to solidify the legitimacy of a playoff push.  I will not bet the spread because the Raiders have covered 4 in a row and in the NFL teams rarely 5 in a row, but I cannot ignore the value in a motivated Raiders team. Raiders on the Moneyline.
Published: 29-11-2020, 10:42 CET Pick: Raiders - ML
Odds: 1.63 at 5Dimes

Category: NFL football
Date: 29-11-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)


TheWooooo 29-11-2020, 12:57
so you basically say the bookies overvalue the difference between these teams and then back the fav?
thestarling 29-11-2020, 21:30
haha no basically I`m saying that I don`t see the Raiders covering but out of the four options: Raiders ATS, ATL ATS, Raiders ML & ATL ML I like Raiders ML... But we all know how that went.
TheWooooo 29-11-2020, 22:28
yeah i mean thats the NFL crazy things happen but results will come. Keep up the good work bro

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