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Real Madrid - Valencia    (won)

Spanish ACB, regular season.

Only one round is left after this game. Real is maybe set for a little bit too big favorite given on fact they are coming from EL Final 4 while Valencia should be more rested. But, no way I'm going with road underdog here, I would need way more points than +7.5 to trust Valencia. And here is why.
Firstly, Real Madrid had two games on mentioned F4, on Friday and on Sunday. But realistically, only first one against CSKA in SF was real game, the second against Fenerbahce for 3rd place was more like a training. So, honestly, I don't think Real is now damaged in physical sense. Psychologically, they might be a little bit cause they failed to defend the title of European champion. Still, it's a fact Real played very well. They have had only one weak quarter, unfortunately it was final quarter vs CSKA. The game is 40 minutes, so we must say it was deserved win for CSKA at the end. But even if Real won, it would be deservedly, and most likely the Spanish team would win also later in the finals. 
Now Real is back to Madrid and they have a lot to play for in two games left. They play to keep the No.1 seed that means the home court advantage during entire playoffs. Real worked hard for this. And after series of victories, they finally took the leading position in moment when Barcelona lost momentum and lost few games in short period. I really doubt Real will miss now the chance to secure first seed. 
Valencia on the other side except prestige has nothing to play for. What ever they do in today's as well in final round of regular season, this team remains on 4th position before start of postseason.
I trust to Real Madrid here but due to fact I feel handicap is maybe just slightly bigger than it should be, I won't bet -7.5 as single bet but will use this alternative line of -4 which IMO is great material for some super short combo. 
Published: 21-05-2019, 17:25 CET Pick: Real Madrid [-4]
Odds: 1.5 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: Spanish basketball
Date: 21-05-2019
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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