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| PICKS | STAKES | PROFIT |
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| YIELD | AVG ✓ ODDS | AVG ✗ ODDS |
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I have now played Milan with a handicap four times, successfully in three of them. Only against Como did the bet go wrong, and it was also a correct bet, as Como was clearly the best in that match.
Roma have 42 points and a home xG of 1.60 for and 1.17 against. Milan have 46 points, but deliver relatively weak away figures with an xG of 1.29 for and 1.49 against. Milan have only four wins in their last ten away matches, and they have “lost” xG in seven of those matches.
Roma are strong at home, with six wins in their last ten on home turf. Malen made his debut this weekend and he showed solid form with scoring and a very solid opening against Torino. Roma play the E-Cup on Thursday, but they are at home and believe they have minimal importance until this
The teams met in Milan in November, where Milan won 1–0, but the match was even. Roma were on top, with an xG of 2.18 to Milan's 1.88.
These are two evenly matched teams, but when we factor in home field advantage, I think Roma should be a fair favorite. I'm playing Roma draw no bet and consider the game playable down to odds of about 1.77.
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