I am trying to playing the 'Rublev angle' whenever I can, because I am still not sold on his mental improvment and besides all his opening grass match in the new season always has obstables. Rublev is a slow starter, needs to get into rythm and although a lot of think grass should be a perfekt surface for his game, it's a bit different. You see, the thing with grass is that heavy hitters like Rublev, they need to go lower to scoop out the ball, they don't have the time for a huge swing and that results in more errors. If you have the ability to put pressure and to take ball extremly early like Federer as well as to utilize slice, than the story is different. That is why often, matches on grass come down to 1,2 points.
Ofner is playing a solid couple of months, did well on clay season and his record on grass is better than then most players in top 100. He can hold his serve if the day is good, already played 2 qualies in Halle and has an unstable player for his first MD match. The numbers game here, mentioned on the begining is similar like Tiafoe/Evans match up yesterday. Rublev plays 'hot n cold' here as he reaches the final one year, goes out in the opening round the following year, and so in circle. But one stable thing i that his first grass match of the season is rough. He lost the set 7/8 times in the opening match and from that 7 loses, he lost the first set 5x. You could go with just +1.5 sets in Ofners favour @1.7-1.75, but I see bigger value taking this because of all reasons mentioned. Lets see if Rublev will follow up on the tradition.
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