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Rublev V.S. Ruud    (won)

I see this as a must play.  Rublev and Ruud are not in the same league.  Rublev has his maturity on display in his last match VS RBA.  Ruud on the other hand had some questionable moments in his match with Humbert, particularly in his inability to convey a single break point in the second set as well as his near break in the opening service game of the third set.  

While their two previous matches have been close, each going to three sets I see this one as one way traffic.  Statistically Rublev is out performing Ruud in the tournament.  But most importantly Casper is tired. This will be his 9th match in just 12 days (while Rublev has only played 5).  This showed in his match with Humbert. Fortunately, for Ruud the Frenchman is weak mentally and lacks the ability for long term focus under duress where expectation is present.  But with age and experience he will develop into a top 15 player and become a contender as the future of French tennis along with Moutet.  

In the H2H Rublev has won both but far from dominated.  I expect a similar match - hard fought battle, especially since Ruud is in exceptional form.  The major deciding factor in this pick was Rublev's return point percentage vs RBA: 56% compared to Ruud's vs Humbert: 41%.  If you take that disparity then add the difficulty according to opponent rank... well you get the idea.

Starling says: Andrew Rublev on the Moneyline.

Thanks for reading :)
Published: 26-09-2020, 07:34 CET Pick: Rublev on the Moneyline
Odds: 1.5 at William Hill


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 26-09-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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