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TheStarling
 
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Rublev V.S. Tsitsipas    (lost)

Before I get into this I would like to mention that Israel Adesanya is the Floyd Mayweather of the UFC.  The guy is money.

Now for the Hamburg championship!  This is going to be one hell of a match.  Both of these guys have played an outstanding tournament and it's unfortunate that someone has to accept second place.  A couple of key points to discuss:  
    1) This is Rublev's second time in this tournament's final going back-to-back from last year. 
    2) The H2H of these players is 2-2 with no match on clay.
    3) Ruby's record on clay since this tournament last year is a stellar 14-2.
    4) So far both player's have dropped only one set in the tourny - Ruby to a player ranked 59,          Tstisi to a player ranked 22.
    5) In Hamburg the average ranking of BOTH player's opponents is: 37 (with the slight .25%            edge going to Ruby).
    6) The market opened with Rublev as the favorite with an immediate buy back on Tsitsi, still           standing with the lower ranked player (Rublev) as the favorite.
    7) Throughout the entire course of the tournament there have been a total of 23 Favorites             and 7 Upsets.  That translates to roughly 3% less than the average upset rate per clay             court tournaments.
    8) With the exception of Rublev, every single player that dropped a set in any round has went on to lose the next match.  This has happened a total of 6 out of 7 times which is a staggering 85%.

And now a breakdown of the player's average statistical performance: 
1st serve in: Tsitsi: 70%, Ruby: 59%
1st serve points won: Tsitsi: 73% Ruby: 75%
2nd serve points won: Tsitsi: 64% Ruby: 54%
Return points won: Tsistsi: 40% Ruby: 50%
Defending breaks: Tsitsi: 15/19 or 79% Ruby: 8/15 or 54%

Starling says: This match is a toss up.  I have not liked the way Tsitsipas has been playing as of late.  His melt down at the US Open shows cracks in his team.  Changes need to be made.  His follow up loss to Sinner in Rome was symptomatic of the same situation at the US Open.  Given how the two are currently playing in this tournament and even in spite of Tsitsi dropping a set to Garin and this being Rublev's second time around in the Hamburg final I have to side with the value bet here on Tsitsipas on the Moneyline.  Also, I advise anyone who bets this match to observe and await a possible cover.  It's going to be crazy down in Hamburg...

Thanx for reading :)


    

Published: 27-09-2020, 09:43 CET Pick: Tsitsipas on the Moneyline
Odds: 2.1 at William Hill


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 27-09-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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