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Sakkari M. - Sabalenka A.    (won)

Sakkari won over Kvitova in another three sets thrillers. I don't know what to think of this match. It's a bit of a funny/stupid phrase but Sakkari didn't win it... Kvitova lost it. Kvitova took the first set, got an early break in second set, was up 3-1 and had in three consecutive Sakkari's service games break points to extend the lead. Thus, Sakkari was constantly on the edge of going home on numerous occasions. Kvitova didn't convert and actually lost the match in what was a PATHETIC display in third set. Essentially, Kvitova gave up the match after second set - sad picture. 

I am not sure how much Sakkari has left in the tank. Playing 12 sets in 4 matches under slow conditions with heavy physical rallies is very exhausting. Her matches against Pliskova and Kvitova had so many weak spots. I admire her fighting spirit of a warrior. However, I think she won't have enough against Sabalenka.

The Belarusian has been astonishing this year. She won the Australian Open and has a single loss this season against Krejcikova. She is 17-1 I think and she has been showing unbeatable tennis. Her serving has tremendously improved and her first serve is lethal. She will be fresh on court as she spent 3 times less time than Sakkari. She is hitting every single shot, her depth is excellent and I didn't see much room for opponents in Indian Wells. This version of Sabalenka is scary.

Odds are huge for Sakkari and I understand why some people will give it a go. However, I think that bookies are quite aware of Sabalenka's probability to win. Thus, Sakkari's value is inflated but I am not buying a Greek win. Sabalenka's tennis has been flawless and that wasn't the case for Sakkari. I think this can be a done deal in two sets and this spread is reasonable.

Twitter: @FollowM16106329
Instagram: @followme_bets
Published: 17-03-2023, 17:54 CET Pick: Sabalenka A. -3.5 AH
Odds: 1.73 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: WTA tennis
Date: 17-03-2023
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)



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