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Salzburg - Dortmund    (lost)

Salzburg will face Dortmund @home in the 2nd leg of the Europa League in the round of the last 16. In the first leg Salzburg won surprisingly 2:1 and has now a good position for the return leg. For Salzburg it will be the game of the year, probably the most important game in Red Bull Salzburg club history to reach a quarter final of an international competition and furthermore defeat a German top team (with an Austrian coach) in a 30k sold out Salzburger Arena (Club Record). For Dortmund the promotion is a must against an Austrian Team, the German media wrote about an embarrassing defeat.

Salzburg is currently in the absolute best shape the team possible could be. They have a sick current unbeaten streak of 31! games combined over all 3 competitions. They didn’t concede many goals so far, but the games against Real Sociedad showed that with good constant pressure their defense is vulnerable.

For Dortmund it isn’t a good season at all, they didn’t reach the next round in the Champions League against Real Madrid and Tottenham, out in the DFB Pokal against Bayern and in the league many experts critize the “Schneckenrennen um die Champions League Plätze” (snail race behind Bayern München about the champions league tickets), therefore in the league the results aren’t as good as position 3 shows. Especially the defense is vulnerable, both CBs Toprak and Sokratis didn’t have the international format a top team like BVB needs, combined with the missing stability from the defensive midfield and Bürki a Goalkeeper without any consistency. The offense is still the key piece of this team, with Marco Reus the most important player is back from injury and has now a few games in his legs, he makes all players around him better. Also winter leaning Batshuayi showed his quality for the Borussia in the most games so far.

With the home defeat Dortmund needs at least 2 goals for promotion and I expect an attack with constant pressure from the beginning. BVB will be angry after the embarrassing defeat and the taunting from the whole German Media. These individual good players from Dortmund should be good enough to beat the Salzburger defense in a do or die game. On the other side Salzburg should have plenty counter opportunities with their quick offensive players against an instable Dortmund Defense. I expect a good amount of goal chances with the perfect starting positions for goals in this return leg. 

Published: 12-03-2018, 00:02 CET Pick: Over 2.75
Odds: 1.83 at Pinnacle


Category: European football
Date: 15-03-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 6 (tipster's average: 6)




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