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Early bet as I think this one will fall.
Neighboring match where home advantage probably means less than normal. Two even teams that have both struggled in the beginning of the season. Fredrikstad plays evenly with most, except the very best. Some examples: 2–0 loss away to KBK, but an even match with xG 1.91–1.76, as well as a deserved win against Ålesund. They were also the best in an even match against Vålerenga.
Sarpsborg has had a weak start to the season and is conceding a lot of goals. At the same time, the head-to-head matches show that Fredrikstad has had the upper hand: three wins and two draws in the last five meetings, and that Fredrikstad was the best and won in the cup match earlier this year.
I consider these to be two even teams, and when the away teams pick up points in around 54% of the matches, while the home advantage is somewhat less than normal, I give a set-piece strong Fredrikstad about a 55% chance of points. That equates to value down to about 1.80.
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