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Schwartzman D. - Ruud C.    (lost)

Ok, since I have little extra time, let's break down this encounter in detail:


After I saw both played their matches, it is not hard to conclude who will/should advance. Diego really was lucky, both times he found himself in miserable situation, but got huge help both from Cressy and Evans. Maxime wasted 2 MP on his serve, while Evans choked with set and break up. He even had 15-40 at 4:4 and chance to serve out the last game, but failed. As expected Diego gave him potato in 3rd. A little further back, if wee take a look at post Laver Cup matches and exclude Gaio who is respectivly not in the same league, wee see Harris also droped set and break lead in San Diego. 
Ruud has been playing as we know really well, not just now but whole season. Real breakthrough, and the main question was, can he play on decent level on hardcourts as well. After shocking defeat against Botic at USO, we can see the answer. As far as Indian Wells goes, routine win over Baena and little tougher match against Harris last night, but overall, his play looks very solid, especialy in clutch moments.


I know we can expect Ruud to lead out most of the points when it comes to attacking, and Diego trying to force him more behind baseline, but Diego's game so far doesn't work as it should be. I think he will have to change and mix it a bit against consistent hitter like Casper, and I am sure he will try to avoid FH as much as he can. However, that can only work if Casper gives him shorter balls at large % of time.


i don't need to spend much time in this department, advantage is clearly on Ruud's side. Infact, he is yet to loose a serve here while Diego was broken 5 times. Better serve means more cheap points and tho Diego is one of the best returnes on tour, I still think it can not be balanced that way. Ruud has been doing really good job when it comes to saving break points 9/9 (8 against Harris).
No need to mention that he will have plenty of chances to break.

Tho Diego leads in mutual encounters 4-2, I can't rate that as positive stat at the moment, since he grabed first 4 wins when he was in way better shape and with Ruud not developed as now. However we can draw some comlnclusion from last 2 games, which they played this year and Ruud won more than comfortably, both on clay and hard. What strikes me the most is not straight set wins, it is the fact he gave away SINGLE BREAK CHANCE in two matches, and I remind you, one of them was on CLAY. That shows how crucial his better serviglng can be here.


Given the reason above, i just can't see how Diego can get better of Casper at this moment. I decided to go with -2.5 which is considered small instead of straight sets, in case some miracle happens and Diego takes close set with something like 7-6 or 6-4. I strongly believe Ruud can hold his serve for a very decent amount of time, and can surely breaks him several time, and infact only sets he lost from USO, were from Dimitrov (who played crazy) and last match from Harris (who served like crazy). Diego hasn't nor play crazy and serve crazy factor right know and again, he was lucky with getting some help. I think Ruud will not be the doctor, but the killer.

Only 3 things are certain in life folks

- and Diego loosing this match

Published: 12-10-2021, 11:44 CET Pick: Ruud -2.5 games
Odds: 1.7 at Pinnacle

Category: ATP tennis
Date: 13-10-2021
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)

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