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Those evil Serbs
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Serbia W - USA W    (won)

Nations League Women, 13th round match

Serbia will meet USA. These two are both top teams. USA clearly better but IMO there is no way they should be such convincing favorite (odds on USA around 1.10). I have impression the odds are not fair from several reasons. 
Firstly, USA is 11-1 so far and won 10 straight. They are current leader on the standings. But Serbia holds current third best record, 9-3. So, Serbia was pretty good too.
Furthermore, very important note could be the fact USA already secured place on the final tournament while Serbia yet need to do so. So, motivation factor should be a little bit more on the Serbian side. 
Next, 9-6 is all time H2H record between these two sides. So, Serbia in general was able to cope with this strong opponent. It's true many of those previous meetings were in the long past. But if we count only the most recent, Serbia in fact was better winning two of the last three and last two straight.
In Rio 2016 Olympics, USA won 3-1 in group but Serbia won when was more important, in the semifinals of the same tournament, 3-2. Serbia also won the last year match on the Grand Prix. 

Furthermore, in competition format like this one, fatigue factor is one of the most important things to consider when place bets. Namely, week after week we have pools of 4 teams competing on different parts of the globe. Here we have now USA, Serbia, Argentina and South Korea facing each other in Argentina as the host of this group. 
Where USA and Serbia have played the last time? Serbia was in group in Europe and played together with host Netherlands, Italy and Dominic Republic. The last match there Serbia played five days ago. 
In the same time USA was in China and played together with host, Brazil and Russia. USA was impressive and won all games there but only against Russia covered this big handicap. 
Also, clearly coming from China, USA had tougher task to adapt for only five days on the new time zone than Serbia had coming from Europe. 

By the stats, Serbia will have in this game the best player on the court. It's Tijana Bošković from whom I expect another huge game. 

IMO Serbia can win set here. So, Serbia +2.5 sets, Over 3.5 sets, Over points, all those should be the winning options. Still, I opted for Serbia in points handicap. I like this high handicap cause I feel even straight sets result in favor of USA, could bring us profit on this Serbia +16.5 pts. 
Published: 12-06-2018, 15:20 CET Pick: Serbia +16.5 pts
Odds: 1.72 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: International volleyball
Date: 12-06-2018
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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