I was thinking a lot about this match and best pick is probably over 38.5 because I believe it will be tough battle, however I just can not shake off the feeling Shapo has his chances here. He is definitely better compared to start of the tournament and trashing Zverev like nobody will probably be rocket sky confidence for today. Shapo is actually very tricky match up for Nadal snd their matches we always very close in most cases.
I rememember Rome, when Shapo was literally one step from victory and Shapo on clay is different player, but yet he had his chances even there. Nadal doesn't like to play against lefties so much, and I am still not convinced he is fully ready to go all the way. My biggest concern here is mentality of Denis, but I would like to think he is extra hyped when playing vs Nadal, and has lot to prove. Seeing quarters with him, Berretini, FAA and Sinner this turned out to be next gen Grand Slam, and maybe this is exactly the right moment for him to step forward and make statement.
Good thing is that session will he during the day which means lots of heat, faster balls. Conditions that suit Shapo more for certain with his agressive style.
If he goes out with right strategic plan and patience I see this match very equal, and he should do that like vs Zverev.
Denis has the weapons to go through Nadal, but he will have to on top of his game with working serve to be able to cross this big obstacle. He said he is working with his team on mentality and giving the fact he showed strong one, every time he faced Nadal, give me aditional hope.
Obviously Rafa will have to change his tactic as well, will have to play cross court backhand majority of the time, tho he certanly prefers to lead out with forehand. Higher bounce should benefit Shapo also, because of his hitting point which is little higher from forehand side.
I hope we can have blockbuster here as I see better chances for Shapo then for Monfils/Berretini in the SF. I would prefer 4+ odds, but still worth of a shot at this price as well.
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