Shelbourne welcome Linfield for this UEFA Champions League Qualification first leg at
Tolka Park in Dublin Wednesday evening. The hosts are reigning champions of Ireland, Linfield come from Northern Ireland. I want to emphasize that the NIFL Premiership is one of the worst 1st tiers in Europe! The Irish Premiership isn't great either, though.. For reference Shamrock Rovers (Ireland) swept past Larne (NIR) 4-1 on the road on the UEFA Conference League league stage. I need to mention Shamrock had a pretty mediocre last season by their standards.. No, this season Shelbourne are not the best team Ireland.. They are currently in 5th place with 35 points in their pocket, 5 points behind Derry, in 2nd place. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 38.12. They have netted the ball 30 times and have conceded 27 goals.However, their number of expected goals (xG) is 36.23 and can surely improve..
Last season Shelbourne defeated St. Josephs 3-2 on aggregate in the Conference League Qualification 1st round. They then faced Zurich, a much bigger Swiss team, losing 0-3 on aggregate - as big underdogs, of course.. At home they fought well, forcing the Swiss to a goalless draw. Linfield, on the other hand, were totally useless away from home, losing to Stajarnan (Iceland) 0-2. At home they won 3-2 though. Surely Stjarnan, not among the top-teams in Iceland (currently in 5th place in the Besta Deild Karla) are not better than Shelbourne.. Linfield won the NIFL last season with 85 points but their xPTS was "only" 73.45. They scored 69 goals and allowed 28 goals. However, their xG was 58.12 and their number of expected goals against (xGA) was 33.46. They have now lost three of their last five games, and all three of their three most recent competitive matches! The NIFL season has not started yet - this benefits Shelbourne here! I expect the atmosphere at Tolka Park to be excellent here - the home advantage is, indeed, significant. Shelbourne are the only slightly better team by pure class but at home - and match-fit - they have a 53% chance of winning
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