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Skycop - Zalgiris Kaunas    (won)

Odds aren't great but there's still enough logic to support this opinion. First of all, Zalgiris Kaunas ended their Euroleague season last week and now they have a fairly intense schedule in the local league for the next two weeks. According to Jasikevicius (head coach of Zalgiris), he will play younger guys much more during these games. That's a truly valid point as these games aren't important and Zalgiris should clearly win them even with the younger players. I do feel that Zalgiris will rest at least one of the important players tonight and that just opens up more time for other guys who played less. Jankunas, the captain, will play after an injury and his experience is what makes him solid (or at least should make against either of the Lavrinovic brothers) in defense even with his weak athleticism. I also see Kavaliauskas, Thompson, Walkup, Milaknis playing more and these guys aren't huge scorers. Skycop are among the weakest defensive teams in the league but once again - they will be playing Zalgiris who play solid defense and you can't control the pace. In the interview before the game one of the Skycop players said that they would be lucky to score 57 points and knowing how physical Zalgiris defense can be - that's a valid statement. If we look to the last h2h game (96-67 Zalgiris won at home), we will see that Zalgiris made 50% (12/24) 3-pointers (38.3% ~8 three-pointers a game is the average), they also scored 17 points in the fast breaks, 25 points after Skycop mistakes (all the numbers above average at least 30%). I don't think that Zalgiris' young players will score as much as the line suggest even against this weak of a defense.  
Published: 30-04-2019, 16:03 CET Pick: Zalgiris Kaunas under 89.5 points
Odds: 1.8 at bet365


* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: Lithuanian basketball
Date: 30-04-2019
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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