The Faroe Islands drew their opening match against Switzerland but then demolished Montenegro 37–24 in their second game. Skipagøtu doesn’t seem to be struggling with his shoulder injury at all and is scoring goals for fun. Mittún has supported him well in both matches, and Teigum — who didn’t play well against Switzerland — was excellent against Montenegro, scoring 9 goals. In total, those three players accounted for 27 of the 37 goals, which shows how much the Faroe Islands rely on all three to avoid looking unbalanced, as happened against Switzerland.
For this match, their odds have been dropping and they are now favourites. They didn’t open as favourites, but I still expect this to be a close game, so odds below 2.00 for their win don’t offer much value in my opinion.
On the other hand, Slovenia, who have won both of their matches (41–40 vs Montenegro and 38–35 vs Switzerland), have managed to get the job done, but we shouldn’t forget their many absences: Blagotinšek, Zarabec, Groselj, Kljun, Janc, Malus, Cehte, Ferlin (the starting goalkeeper and one of the team’s stars), and Aleks Vlah (Slovenia’s top scorer in the last three major tournaments: Euro 2024, the 2024 Olympics where he was the second top scorer overall, and the 2025 World Championship).
Because of this, Slovenia have been forced to grind out narrow wins against weaker teams, and when facing a strong opponent they may struggle badly. So far they have managed to compensate offensively for the absences, but defensively they are conceding far too many goals (40 and 35). After the first game you could think it was just a bad day, but it’s happened in both matches, so I fear a team like the Faroe Islands could punish them again.
Slovenia are already qualified, but if they win they will advance with two carry-over points. If the Faroe Islands win, they will be the ones going through with those two points instead. So there is a lot at stake for both teams — especially for the Faroe Islands, who do not yet have their place in the Main Round secured.