Spurs-Timberwolves    (lost)

The biggest boost for the Timberwolves in their Game 1 road upset over the Spurs was the early return of their core player, Anthony Edwards. His injury will certainly still affect his condition, and Minnesota are clearly managing his minutes, but he still came off the bench for around 25 minutes and delivered 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting. In the fourth quarter, he caused major problems for the Spurs. For Minnesota, Edwards’ return is not only a scoring upgrade, but also a huge emotional lift. Playing through injury immediately raised the morale of the whole team and gave the Timberwolves another backcourt star who can create tough shots in key moments.

But this Timberwolves team is not strong just because of Edwards. What truly supports their ability to pull off back-to-back upsets is their overall two-way structure and wing depth. In the first round against the Nuggets, Minnesota were short-handed but still eliminated the Nuggets led by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray 4-2, and that was no accident. Players like Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels are extremely valuable wings. They can defend, rebound, absorb physical contact, and are willing to do the dirty work. Especially after Denver lost Aaron Gordon, Minnesota’s advantage on the wing and inside was immediately amplified, making life very uncomfortable for Jokic. Now in the second round, Randle and McDaniels should have a more comfortable matchup against wings like Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie than they did against Denver, so Minnesota’s physical edge should continue to show.

Judging from Game 1, the pace was not particularly fast. At one point, the game had a very old-school feel, with the halftime score tied at 45-45, only 90 combined points. The offense gradually opened up after the third quarter, and the fourth quarter turned into a battle of star power and clutch execution. Although the final total went over 200 points, the overall process was more of a team-basketball grind rather than a pure offensive shootout. For Minnesota, Edwards is still likely to come off the bench and have his minutes controlled at around 25 minutes. Dosunmu remains a game-time decision, while the starting backcourt combination of Mike Conley and Terrence Shannon Jr. worked quite well. Head coach Chris Finch is likely to continue with the Game 1 approach and wait for Spurs coach Mitch Johnson to make the first adjustment before responding accordingly.

During the regular season, the Timberwolves went 2-1 against the Spurs, and the games were all very competitive. Minnesota once nearly completed a comeback after trailing by 25 points at halftime, and in another meeting, they erased a 19-point home deficit by winning the fourth quarter 33-18, eventually taking a 104-103 comeback victory. This shows that the matchup between these two teams is not one-sided, and that same grinding pattern has carried into the playoffs. The Spurs do have Victor Wembanyama’s defensive presence and shot-blocking threat, as well as De’Aaron Fox’s ball-handling and attacking ability. However, both can be targeted offensively by Minnesota, and Harrison Barnes’ veteran experience alone may not be enough to help the young core solve the pressure created by Minnesota’s intense wing defense.

Overall, the Spurs will certainly have stronger motivation to even the series in Game 2, and their chances of winning at home are not low. However, the Timberwolves are now close to a full-strength lineup, and their wing depth, backcourt options and overall toughness are enough to help them keep the score close. This series is unlikely to be an easy Spurs domination. It looks more like a long, physical battle that may be decided in the final few possessions. Even if the Spurs win, creating a double-digit margin will not be easy.

Pick: Timberwolves +10.5