Spurs - Timberwolves    (won)

The Timberwolves have been a strong playoff dark horse in recent years. In 2024, they eliminated Denver and reached the Western Conference Finals, although they eventually lost 1-4 to Dallas. After that, the front office made a major move by trading Karl-Anthony Towns and bringing in Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, making the roster tougher and more defense-oriented. This season, injuries affected their regular-season consistency, and they finished sixth in the West. Still, they once again upset Denver in the first round, winning the series 4-2. Eliminating a title contender like the Nuggets twice in three years proves that Minnesota’s playoff intensity is real.

However, Minnesota has several offensive concerns right now. Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo both left games with injuries. Ayo Dosunmu stepped up in a huge way, scoring 25 points in Game 3 and exploding for 43 points in Game 4 on 13-of-17 shooting, 5-of-5 from three and 12-of-12 from the line. But he later picked up an injury as well, and both he and Kyle Anderson missed Game 6. Terrence Shannon Jr. then started and scored 24 points, giving the Wolves a key lift. He has scored 42 points across three playoff games, but entering the second round with this type of temporary rotation against San Antonio’s defensive structure creates real offensive uncertainty.

The Spurs finished the regular season at 62-20, one of the best seasons in franchise history, and Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox are leading a serious title push. In the first round against Portland, Wembanyama suffered a concussion scare and missed one game, but once he returned, San Antonio’s rim protection became overwhelming. Together with Luke Kornet, the Spurs made life extremely difficult for Portland’s interior players. Against a physical and experienced Minnesota team, San Antonio is unlikely to force the pace right away in Game 1. Both Mitch Johnson and Chris Finch should prioritize defense, careful execution and limiting mistakes. This matchup is more likely to feature half-court possessions, physical contact and defensive adjustments. The total of 217.5 looks a bit high, so the under is the better play.