Stricker is gradually trying to come back on main tour. Last season, he was heavily hit by injuries and lost a lot of points. He left the Top 100 and he is now 229th. He had to retire twice for the past couple of months but at least it's a player that doesn't force fitness issues. This means that if he doesn't feel at 100%, he will retire and we void the tip. In Wimbledon, he looked very decent but failed to win over Mochizuki. The Swiss received a wild card in Gstaadt and will be motivated by the crowd. It's a huge opportunity to regain form and Herbert is beatable. He is also the more technical player in rallies.
Indeed, the French player has never had good results on clay. That's due to his game style that is suited for fast surfaces. He loves to play serve & volley while often rushing to the net to kill points. His court movement became weaker in the past years and it's evident that age starts to kick in. The conditions in Gstaadt are faster than usual clay courts so both players will enjoy the match-up. Herbert has 3 losses in a row including a couple of losses in a row against Mochizuki. The French veteran has a very one-dimensional game that it's easy to read by opponents. If his serving numbers are average, Stricker will definitely have opportunities from baseline.
I am slightly forcing the bet here. The opening odds had value and @ 1.67 the price has declined too much. Yet, it seems that the market's direction is backing logic and I think that the Swiss has an edge. I am not totally in love with this tip as it lacks value but at the same time, bookies are strongly adjusting the price which is concerning for Herbert's backers. I will only blame myself if this is not a winner but I will try Stricker at home.
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