Sturm Graz have 11 straight home matches against Rapid without a loss (7-4-0). Now they are facing Rapid on a good spot, tough schedule for Rapid who only got 2-2 against Dundee, and have to think about the return leg in a very serious way. The two fronts clearly will be a struggle for them, which I think Sturm can capitalize on. They are also playing against Bodö Glkmt, but that is later this month, so they are not in a bad spot schedule wise. At this time of the season, I am looking at teams with compromised schedules and try to find opportunities.
Generally speaking, I consider Sturm to be a main competitor for the title again, so it is not only a strong home team, but also on paper.
Rapid have gone undefeated for a long time, especially during pre season & Europe against minnows. The only impressive result in pre season is a 1-1 with Union Berlin, and a 5-2 trashing of Zilina. They would probably be more than happy to avoid defeat here, and more likely enter with a defensive approach.
Conclusion: This pick is based on more rest, more preparation, and also home advantage. Those combined parameters give an attractive price for Graz to take the win against a Rapid who got to manage their squad. Draw no bet, or Asian handicap 0 for Sturm appears good to me
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