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Suduva (Ltu) - FK Crvena zvezda (Srb)    (lost)

The same opponents in the Champions League qualifications like year ago. Only back then it was 2nd qualifying round, now it's the opening round.
Short recap of last season results. CZ has won back then 5:0 on aggregate score, here in Lithuania it was 'only' 0:2. But have in mind those were early 2 goals for CZ plus it was 2nd leg, so the Serbian team already had 3:0 from the first leg. All that speak in favour CZ played just routinely in the second game. Plus, if I remember well, Suduva had few very nice chances to score.
I definitely see the home team scoring now. Or if not, CZ to score 3, it's not impossible. The championship in Lithuania is well on its way, so the form should be on the side of home team cause they should be more in the competitive rhythm. Yes, their league is weak but they are pretty dominant there and are coming to this game from the recent big 3:0 win over Zalgiris who is supposed to be their main rival there. I have feeling Suduva is better than season ago.
On the other side, it's still early to say something more about Serbian team cause season didn't started yet back home. So, for them this is the first official match of the new season. There was plenty friendly games but honestly I don't take those seriously. In any case, again much money is spent, many new players arrived and no doubt CZ is big favorite the same as year ago on this visits to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and similar football level. But the value is gone, the odds on away win slashed long ago, pretty much immediately after the initial odds came out. So, unless you willing to risk with 45/90 option or with handicap, I think the best approach and the best value is on Over 2.5 total goals in the match. 

The small and I would say the only concern about this bet is Milojevic, Red star head coach. He is well known for his
cowardly tactic, sometimes too defensively oriented. Even when opponent is not strong. But hopefully this won't kill this bet. Hopefully we won't see visiting team to stay back if take early lead. 
Published: 09-07-2019, 15:26 CET Pick: Over 2.5
Odds: 2.28 at Pinnacle


Category: European football
Date: 09-07-2019
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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