Swiatek's last title was roughly one year ago and it happened in Seoul. Since then, she has been struggling in the closing stages of tournaments for various reasons. This also explains why she dropped in rankings. With a win, she will come back in the Top 5. She has been playing well in Montreal and her win over Svitolina was a strong statement. Yet, I do think he 2nd serve is too vulnerable and the forehand remains inconsistent game by game.
Rybakina is chasing the #1 spot with a win. She also beat Swiatek in their last couple of matches (Australian Open and Finals in Saudi Arabia). The H2H is 6-6 but Rybakina winning their recent encounters gives her the edge. The Kazakh had the more difficult path to the final stage. She also spent more time on court and had less rest time. However, both ladies had a full month of rest before Montreal so I cannot factor this too much.
This match is close to a coin flip so I see value on Rybakina. She has the best serve on tour and if she hits +60% from the first shot, Swiatek will have issues from return. Mentally, she is a warrior as the came back from a "lost" match against Samsonova and won against Gauff and Osaka after dropping the first set. Rybakina has the serve while Swiatek some edge from baseline. May the better lady lift the trophy but I side with the tall Kazakh.
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