Tampa - Dodgers
The Rays had their plan and with lefty ACE Snell their plan succeeded, which was not a real big surprise.
Published: 23-10-2020, 17:04 CET
Pick: LA Dodgers ML
Today however a much better matchup for LA and here is why.
So Morton is looking great, he is showing up in the postseason, he is even 5-0 for the rays in the Postseason with a 0.70 ERA.
But it is all about matchups and I will not be surprised if they get some very good looks on Morton and here is why.
First of all, the Dodgers absolutely destroys righties. In overall numbers, the Braves were the best team against righties this season. In power numbers, however, the Dodgers were by far the best team against RHP with an unreal.240 ISO which made them by far the most powerful team against righties.
So let's break down his stuff.
Morton relies on 3 pitches basically: the Four-seamer, Curve, and the Sinker. He occasionally uses the Slider and split-finger as well as rare secondary pitches.
During the regular season, When we look at all of the pitches, he has not one big weapon. Okay, he got 16 Ks with his four-seamer and 24 K's with the curve, BUT all of his pitches got hit (hard). Opponents hit.271 off his FA, .228 off his Curve, .361 of his Sinker, and his secondary pitches get rocked even harder.
Now, this LA team is not only great against righties, but they are also a great FA hitting team. In pitch value (100) they are 2nd vs the FA and against the Sinker, they were even the best team by far during the regular season, ranked 1st (!) indeed.
A long time ago, but as a Pirate, Morton got rocked against LA: 9.00 ERA/2.60 WHIP.
On the other side, we have Buehler on the mound, and I am really impressed with the righty.
Buehler has a dirty breaking ball, but his four-seamer is one of the best I have seen this season. He has pint point command with his Fastball and even great FA teams get tricked by it.
Buehler posted a 1.89 ERA this postseason and he totally deserves it with a massive 13.74 K/9 (!).
So, if you can find strikeout bets (last year 365 offered it a lot, but they are afraid this season) I advise taking Rays over 6.5 SO since they are a SO machine.
This LA team is SO much better offensives wise, from top to bottom, they can all hit whereas the Rays bottom half is nothing special.
Rays bullpen is strong (3.37 ERA during the regular season), but LA with even a better 2.74 ERA and a better 8.85 K/9 as well (8.78 K/9 for Tampa).
I believe LA will come up with a solid plan to take a 2-1 lead in the series.
Odds: 1.68 at Pinnacle
Category: MLB baseball
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)
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