Game 4, Milwaukee 2-1
Three games so far, in every the team who was the host also won the game. This 4th could be the first to change this trend. Realistically, this is good spot for Milwaukee. This team is outstanding after the loss. I don't have now in front of me the exact stats, but I know we are talking about great SU and ATS stats if we count only Bucks' games after the loss.
Furthermore, Milwaukee proved so far they are better of these two rosters. Honestly, this could be now 2-1 Toronto, not 2-1 Milwaukee but it's not. Thanks to much better bench, Milwaukee has won the Game 1 when they should lose. Better bench contribution for Bucks continued also in the next two meetings so Milwaukee easily won Game 2 while last time (first played in Toronto), thanks to its bench Milwaukee was close although their starters were terrible. By terrible I mean only 27% FG and only 20% for 3-pts for Bucks starting five players in Game 3. So, it wasn't only Giannis weak, all starting five have had bad day. But even with this numbers, Bucks were able constantly to get back in the game and when ever Toronto was up, Bucks were back again. At the end double OT and Raptors win. By the way, Giannis was fouled out and didn't play 2nd OT. Yes, he was weak in scoring in any case, but 23 rebounds for him, so his leaving the game really felt.
Obviously now with expected better performance from Bucks' starters, they have good chance to win.
The biggest reason why odds dropping on Milwaukee is the injury of best Raptors' player, Kawhi Leonard. For me he is also the best player on the floor in this series. He got injured during Game 3 (knee I think). But, he played all the way although was visible he was in pain. And was phenomenal once again. Offense, defense, this guy is perfect in everything. But if he isn't now at 100% (and seems he is not), I would be worried if I am Raptors fan. He is going to play, no doubt about it. But, small things decides here and if he feels just a little bit uncomfortable, that could be bad for Toronto.
So, I must say I'm leaning towards Milwaukee but won't go in that direction cause I still have big respect for Kawhi and Raptors, at least here on home floor. If this is pk game, then probably such odds would be worth of risk. This way, I am moving to totals.
BTW, I'm not interested either in Raptors cause I'm afraid of third quarter and afraid of second half in general. Especially now when Leonard might not be at 100% and this could be visible later in the game, plus Bucks in any case are dominant in second half. Maybe first half bet on Raptors is not bad idea, but also no value. The bookies expect similar so they offers pretty much 50-50 first half odds although Milwaukee is clear favorite for FT.
But expected tied first half could be good for Over bet in this period. I expect from Kawhi Leonard to dominates this game until he is fresh. I see many points in the first half no matter halftime totals are at 105.5 to 106 while full-time totals at 217.5 to 218 pts (the bookies prediction is 106 in first, 112 in second half
So I think Over 105.5 HT at bet365 is good bet but, I opted for Toronto Raptors halftime team totals, over 52.5 pts. Cause, who knows, maybe Milwaukee would be with poor game opening like it was in 2 of the 3 occasions so far while with wind in the back from the stands, I feel Raptors won't disappoints early in the game. I expect Raptors with 55+ pts at halftime.