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Toronto - Chicago    (half-lost)

Toronto FC comes from a 3-0 home win over Ottawa Fury in the semi-finals of the Canadian Championship on Wednesday, third consecutive for Greg Vanney's men following a 1-0 victory in the first leg in Ottawa on July 18 and a 2-1 win at Toyota Park against today's opponent Chicago Fire last Saturday.Ottawa Firy, however, is a team from the middle of the standings in the USL (8th place / 8-3-8  19/23), while the hosts spent the first two thirds of the season in the MLS in the lower half of the Eastern Conference and their chances of defending their title are rather theoretical, given that the gap between them and sixth-placed New England Revolution is nine points.
In the matter of fact, Toronto FC is a team with a powerful attack in Jonathan Osorio (m / 18+7), Victor Vazquez (m / 12+5), Jordan Hamilton (f / 11+2), Jozi Altidore (f / 4+2), Sebastian Giovinco (f / 17+5), etc., as the hosts have scored two or more goals six times in the last nine rounds, but managed to win only nine points in this period, mainly due to their poor play in defense.Toronto's defense has been the team's Achilles' heel since the beginning of the new season, as the hosts conceded a total of 39 goals in the previous twenty rounds and managed to keep a clean sheet just once in their previous nine league games at BMO Field.Drew Moor (d / 3+0) and Auro (d / 13+0) remains unavailable due to injuries.
Only five teams have conceded more goals than Toronto FC since the beginning of the new campaign in the MLS and one of them is Chicago Fire.The guests have struggled mighitly in defense lately, conceding two or more goals in each of their last five games in the league against New York City (3-2/home), Vancouver Whitecaps (2-3/away), Philadelphia Union (3-4/home), FC Dallas (1-3/away) and Toronto FC on July 21.In fact, Chicago Fire conceded less than two goals just twice in its previous ten away games, despite winning points in half of them (2-3-5  14/21).On the other hand, Velijko Paunovic can count on several very experienced players up front in Bastian Schweinsteiger (m / 19+3), Aleksandar Katai (m / 21+9), Alan Gordon (f / 18+4), and Nemanja Nikolic (f / 20+10), so it's not surprising that Chicago Fire owns the fourth-best attack in the Eastern Conference (39 goals), as the guests failed to score just once in their previous twelve away games in all competitions.
Matt Polster (d / 1+0), Jorge Corrales (d  /12+0) and Dax McCarty (m / 16+0) will miss the visit to BMO Field due to injuries.
I expect more than three goals in this match between the teams of Toronto FC and Chicago Fire.
Published: 28-07-2018, 22:14 CET Pick: over 3.25
Odds: 1.88 at Pinnacle


Category: US football
Date: 29-07-2018
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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