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Trakai v Suduva    (won)

Smed - Suduva Win @ 2.20 away to Trakai, Lithuania A Lyga 31/03.

Trakai currently sit 4th in the table with eight points taken from the first fifteen available however they've had a more than favourable start and this is by far their most difficult game to date. Despite two wins and two draws from their five games so far I have only been impressed with them in one game – the 4-1 win away at Kauno. They've had the luxury of playing the poorer sides in the league up until now having already played Palanga (7th) twice, Stumbras (8th), Kauno (5th) and Atlantas (2nd). The only real test in those games was Atlantas and they looked poor and deservedly lost the game 1-0. Finished third last season but aren't as strong as they were then due to some of their better players departing in the winter, mainly Oscar Dorley. Still have some decent attacking threat in Bilyaletdinov and Mukanya however Suduva are solid defensively and should keep both quiet.

Champions Suduva have made a strong start to the campaign as expected picking up ten points from their first four games. The only points they have dropped so far were to Zalgiris who are the 2nd best side in the league so starting with three wins and a draw and also three clean sheets is impressive and they've continued where they left off from last season. They've retained the core of the squad that won the title last year and made some decent additions in midfield in N'Diaye and Acevedo. Was slightly concerned about their defence in pre season however they've only conceded to Jonava and new signing Gayduchik has looked solid in both games he has played in so far. This is their first away game after four home ties (so many home games due to their indoor facility – impossible to play outdoors in awful weather) and from striker Laukzemis' recent interview they are confident of playing well and getting a result.

Suduva were roughly the same price in their last game away at Trakai in November (last season) and the 1-0 victory for the home side was a false result. Suduva dominated the game and did everything but score. I make Suduva around the same strength as last season, Trakai are weaker. Combine that with the fact Suduva have played better opposition in their opening fixtures than Trakai and have fared significantly better I feel the away sides odds should be shorter than currently available.


Published: 30-03-2018, 21:19 CET Pick: 2
Odds: 2.2 at bet365

* Odds are correct at the time of publishing and subject of change

Category: Lithuanian football
Date: 31-03-2018
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 4 (tipster's average: 6)

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