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Trento - Partizan    (lost)

Odds on Partizan are going down which I don't like at all, but this time I think it is the correct move. I took earlier Partizan at Pinnacle at +7 handicap, now you would need to go with +6.5 and even that for juice odds.
But as mentioned, I think the bettors are correct this time and this is the right choice.

Partizan was very good at the start of the new season. Many new players has arrived to the team so it was question if everything would work well right away. Especially it was big doubt after we saw some very convincing losses in the preseason. We are talking about 30+ defeats but note it was in meeting with Euroleague teams, Baskonia and Barcelona. Plus, it turned out again that it's one thing playing in preseason, it's quite different when the regular season starts. So, never take those preseason results too seriously.

Partizan played very well on the ABA Super Cup, defeated easily Mornar and lost after OT against last season ABA champion, Buducnost. Then at the start of the new regular season in ABA, they defeated on the road Cedevita. That was really great result since Cedevita is one of few best in the league. Also note Partizan was without road win against Cedevita for last six years. So, even when Partizan was without doubt the best in the region, they have had problems to beat Cedevita in Zagreb.
I feel the good start of the season will continue also today with one good game away in Italy at the start of the Eurocup. I don't say Partizan will win there, but realistically they don't need to do so for this bet. One tied loss with no more than 2 possession game, would be enough.

I don't want to underestimate Trento. Of course they are good team. Last season they were 5th in Italy but went all way to the playoffs finals and won 2 games there (4-2 lost final series).
This team was back in the highest rank in Italy some 5 to 6 years ago and since then they have one and the same coach which is important of course. But on the European level, I can't say that Trento as a team is with too much experience. Last season they were better than Partizan in this competition. Unlike Serbian team who was out after first group stage, Trento reached Top 16 after 6-4 overall record and nice 4-1 at home. But, those opponents were not too tough. Later in the second group stage (Top 16), it was interesting that two of the three opponents were from this Ex-Yug region, from ABA league, Cedevita and Buducnost. Buducnost has defeated them in both games while against Cedevita they were successful by winning by 4 pts in Croatia and with 11 pts in Italy. But Cedevita was back then completely out of the rhythm plus note Trento needed huge 4th quarter (+17 pts) to cover the handicap.

I like the fact that Trento basketball is not nice to watch. There is more chance you will see some tough physical defensive game than some too great attacking game. IMO this is going in favor of one lower scoring match where chances for underdog to cover are better.

Partizan is with minor injury problems but nothing to be too much worried about. Bandja Sy has missed the game in Zagreb and wont play today either.
About Trento I can't say much more cause we didn't have chance to see them in the official game in the new season. But fact that their Italian league is yet to start could go in favor of Partizan here cause Serbian team already is with three official games in 2018/19. So, we wont be wrong if we say Partizan's form probably is slightly better right now.

Published: 03-10-2018, 16:31 CET Pick: Partizan +6.5
Odds: 1.85 at Betway


Category: European basketball
Date: 03-10-2018
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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