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USC V.S. UConn    (won)

USC shocked the tiny NCAA Pac12 sports world with their upset victory against a highly overvalued BYU team beating them by a brutal 26 points after being 3.5 point dogs.  UConn (the favorite coming into this matchup has a perfect record, but have only played in-State schools.  While the site of the game is neutral it is being played just 30 miles from UConn's home gym and over 3,000 miles from USC's.  

USC is suspected to have a first round pick on their side in freshman Evan Mobley who is an absolute beast.  In addition to the star power USC seems to be playing inspired basketball, looking like a well oiled machine in their first games of the season.  UConn boasts sure fire NBA prospect James Bouknight who has literally become a human highlight reel. Alongside him is Isiah Whaley who is a senior PF/C who just gobbles up lose rebounds and protects the rim like a boss.  

The guard play on UConn is a huge advantage against USC and USC's big's (Mobley brothers) hold an edge over UConn in the front court, particularly the rebounding department (but only slightly, as Isiah Whaley can definitely hold his own down low).  Eaddy is also a factor for USC in the scoring department as he crushed BYU for 16 points.  Statistically, UConn holds the upper hand offensively (only by a thin margin) while USC commands the defensive side of the ball.  One particularly concerning number is USC's turnover rate.  This is a department UConn excels in that could make a difference in the game.  

Without any history between these teams it is difficult to set expectations.   The predictive power rankings go in favor of USC as they are projected at #46 while UConn is projected at #56.  In the past two games UConn's opponents have been significantly weaker than USC's.

Starling Says:   This game is close to a pick-em with the books siding slightly to the home team (UConn) due to their experience factor.  However, both teams will need to be on the top of their game to pull out a victory here.  USC had a close call in their season opener against a sorry Cal Baptist team.  In college basketball handicapping a few statistics are not allotted the importance they should be.  FT% and Fouls.  UConn holds a significant advantage in these numbers to their opponent and I like them to continue to exploit these factors in this game.  Odds have begun to shift in favor of USC as they are an undeniable value dog, but the more they shift the more I like the value in the favorite in this matchup as I feel they are the more seasoned and better team overall.  I expect to see a low scoring game that comes down to the wire, but In the end I like UConn to prevail.  UConn on the Moneyline.
Published: 04-12-2020, 00:06 CET Pick: UConn -1
Odds: 1.95 at 5Dimes


Category: NCAA basketball
Date: 03-12-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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