U Catolica - Libertad    (void)

We have another similar story happening in Ecuador, when schedule is an important factor for the odds drifts right now. This time, Catolica are travelling to Lima in Copa Sudamericana on the 14th of August, and plays in the league on the 16th August. With that short of a rest, including travel, there is an opportunity to look at, particularly for the underdog.

Catolica are 6-4-1 at home, so basically they tend to drop points almost in half of their matches here. Now, it will be even more tricky, as some rotation can be expected. Already at this stage, I lean towards Libertad to gain a result. As always in South America, this time of the year is tricky with priorities, so I take the freedom to assume that they will not field their best eleven here, as the focus will be on the home match against Alianza Lima instead.

What about Libertad then? They are 6th in the league, scoring goals at a good rate (5th best offensive numbers in the league) so they are actually capable of competing. I think they can compete even more here. As travelers, they are 3-7-2 which means only two losses in 12 away matches. I think they are not going to pick up a loss here. 

H2H: Libertad have won the last two meetings with Catolica, which includes home, and away. 

Conclusion: The odds are dropping rapidly, but here I am investing a decent chunk, on 3.35 draw no bet for Libertad. It is a pretty good try! More rest, and will face a rotated Catolica.

A fun "lottery bet" in Ecuador can be Manta + Libertad straight wins, at 50x. Both underdogs are facing teams with rotation/priorities elsewhere :)