Europa League, R32, second leg
The first leg score: 1:1
I was reading quite well these European games where one of the opponents is Serbian team. In meeting between CSKA Moscow and Crvena zvezda, I had both times winning bets while here in first leg between Partizan and Plzen, I was on Partizan Draw No Bet, so it ended as a push bet. But the preview was correct, the game was as I expected.
A little bit about the first leg played in Belgrade. Partizan was quite good and was much closer to win. After all, they took the lead back then in 58th minute and kept it all until 81st when Plzen tied. Also note Plzen goal was after offside that the linesman referee missed to see.
Fact that Plzen didn't look much dangerous in first game, is not worrying for me. I mean, such game from them was expected. In these two legs aggregate score, you can't go on the road for first game and to play something too offensive. Cause this is not Man. City visiting Basel type of game, here the opponents are of similar quality so you need to be careful and to play a little bit more defensive in the first leg on the road.
But as soon as Plzen conceded back then, their head coach Vrba has made some substitute and changed formation to more offensive. And from that moment, Plzen has created few situation in Partizan box. We can't say those were some 100% chances, but Plzen showed that first 60 minutes was due to pure tactical reasons and not due Partizan higher quality.
Now at home, Plzen is favorite but I don't agree the odds are high enough. No way. I said also before first game that teams are somewhere at 50-50, probably with slight advantage on the Czezh side. But odds around 1.70 in second leg are not value odds, at least not if you ask me. If in the first leg remained 1:0, so if Partizan won back then, I would agree in that case that Plzen deserve odds around 1.70 to 1.80 in this second leg and I would consider it as worth a risk. That would make today's game quite different. Partizan would sit back and would be satisfied with say 2:1 loss, even 1:0 today would not push them to play offensively and I am sure they would lose. But with this 1:1, IMO everything is possible.
I think this 1:1 from week ago give us great opportunity to make profit today by betting Both Teams to Score. Namely, with this 1:1, Partizan simply must play to score (0:0 is not enough for them now).
On the other side, Plzen although is ok with scoreless draw, IMO no way they will just sit back now at home like they played for entire hour in Serbia. This is excellent team at home. They won all three home games in group stage (Steaua, Lugano and Hapoel Beer Sheva), they are with perfect 8-0-0 at home in their national championship.
A little bit about weekend games: both, Plzen and Partizan played first rounds of the second part of the season in the national leagues during the past weekend. Partizan has visited Lucani and met with Mladost. The defending Serbian champion has won, 1:2 but with plenty of luck and with one poor effort. Partizan did dominate heavily in ball possession, shots, corners etc. but there wasn't some too good goal chance. And then Mladost has scored in the mid second half. Still, Partizan made comeback after one quite poor defending from Mladost at first goal when they left alone Partizan player on some six to seven meters from goal and then it was own goal for 1:2. By the way, both Partizan goals were very late in the game, the second one when Mladost was with two players less on the pitch due two red cards.
So, it was not good game from Partizan but you know, with several missings due to rest before trip to Plzen, and with this much more important Euro game in their heads, maybe it was expected Partizan will underperform.
On the other side Plzen opened second part of the season in Czech league with road game against Sigma. Quite similar situation with Partizan. Plzen probably was thinking much more on this Europa League game so they played just 0:0. It was only second draw for them there after they finished the first part of the season with 15-1-0.
Partizan will have several changes today compared with games played in Belgrade. IMO all those changes are going in favor of this bet BTS. Namely, Partizan should be stronger upfront since attacker Ozegovic has recovered and will be in competition for starting eleven. We will see if he will start, but if not definitely will enter the game from the bench if necessary. Also the most significant signing during the winter break, Zdjelar who arrived from Olympiakos will be available today after he missed the first game. He is important in the midfield. But in defense Partizan is now in problems. Namely, Mitrovic got a red card (two yellow cards) in game in Belgrade so won't play today. Ostojic is possible replacement but IMO he is not too trustful plus he was injured and it's question if he is at 100%. Furthermore, one more defender, the captain Vulicevic got injured in the meantime and although traveled to Czech Republic, most likely will miss the game.
I think also over 2.5 is good option here but since I doubt this is going to be 3:0 for any side and since I expect goals on both sides, I feel Both Teams to Score is more safe. Even 1:1 would finished the job and that 1:1 is the least I expect to see here.
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