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Darkness
 
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Weissborn - M. Thiem    (lost)

Austrian Pro Series

I feel I have confused ideas right now, it's such a bad time but I still want to try something despite these shitty matches (both in tennis and football). Here I am again supporting Moritz, maybe I'm stupid to do it, but I still think he is not completely rubbish and sooner or later he will win a match in this competition. Here another matchup with a doubles player as an opponent (after Oswald), one of the worst on paper as he was heavy underdog against #494 Erler and even a slight one against 17-year-old Neumayer (lost to both but with fight). Then Weissborn beat Novak after a 3-hour marathon, but I don't know how to evaluate that upset as Dennis seems in joke/practice mode (probably friends too), also conceded a set to Erler and Neumayer themselves earlier. High odds for Moritz, but you need to win though.


Published: 04-06-2020, 04:12 CET Pick: M. Thiem
Odds: 3.8 at Pinnacle


Category: ATP tennis
Date: 04-06-2020
Option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Stake: 7 (tipster's average: 9)



FinnishFlash 04-06-2020, 05:22
Was thinking exactly the same, have not decided yet :) We both know books are overrestimating Weissborn here because of the Novak match, but interesting "fact" is that Moritz beat him last year on clay. And although it was only Bundesliga, I think this level players play it serious enough cause there is usually good money involved Germany/ Austria, and for example our Jarkko Nieminen played almost always German bundesliga even when being most of the time top-50.
Valuescout 04-06-2020, 20:37
Thiem is really untalented Player. no weapons no charakter
FinnishFlash 04-06-2020, 20:39
I have to agree. But talent dont win games with these ITF-mugs :D
Valuescout 04-06-2020, 22:23
But nice Comeback actually. Weissborn lead 6:4 3:0 and just stop to Play Tennis.
Darkness 05-06-2020, 00:19
Same old story, I hadn`t missed these moments.
Dsobol 05-06-2020, 01:01
Another great pick Darker, Ive been tailing ur picks since u regged here BUT I dont do MLs, I play handicap, u r hitting like 70% on those, just saying...
Darkness 05-06-2020, 02:49
Thanks man. I think I`m betting more aggressive for a year now, taking more ML picks with 3.00+ odds without any fear. Sometimes it`s ok and sometimes it`s bad, but in tennis I think betting high odds is EV+ if you can find the value. Then of course it depends on the matchup and the many factors related to this sport, taking the safer pick can also be the best choice for sure. About this one I noticed that Thiem is prone to give away his matches when he loses the opening set, he was about to do it again but Weissborn looked dead in the second set. So I went for the max value. Also I don`t like taking the plus handicap when my player is a weak server, Thiem is really ridicolous about that (looks like Putintseva). Hitting 70% with that option is not bad, but in fact I know when I lose high MLs I often go close and the safer pick is always won in that case. So many lost picks through tough marathons and never luck with the tiebreaks as well.

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