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Western United - Wellington Phoenix    (lost)

A-League, play-offs quarterfinal. Match will be played at 11:45 a.m.

Western United plays3rd season in the A-League  Last 2 seasons was ranked 5th and 10th. Now it is placed 3rd. 
Wellington Phoenix has been playing in A-League for 15 years . In last 2 seasons was placed 3rd and 9th. Now it is 6th.  
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Statistics:
WU  26 13-6-7 goals 40:30, at home 13 9-2-2 goals 25:12
WP 26 12-3-11 goals 34:49 an away 13 4-1-8 goals 15:29
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Form: 
WU 6 2-1-3 goals 11:8, at home 3 2-1-0 goals 9:4.
WP 6 2-0-4 goals 5:16, an away 3 1-0-2 goals 4:6.
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H2H statistics from 2007-2021:  9 matches 1-1-7 goals 7:19, 
in Melbourne 4 0-1-3 goals 3:9.
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WU's players have a value of 8 mln. euro, and WP's players -9. WU's absences: center back Topor-Stanley (21/1/1), center midfielder Lustica (24/5/1), ofensive midfielder Diamanti (10/0/0), and 3 other players are doubtful . WP's absences: right-back Elliot (13/0/0), center-back Laws (15/0/0), defensive midfielder Rufer (14/0/1)
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Summary: season statistics show that the favorite before this game is the home team. Theoretically, Western United has its own field of advantage. This is shown by the home statistics of today's hosts and Wellington's away stats. However, the H2H statistics, also from the current season, clearly show Phoenix's big advantage. I don't know what the reason is, because I only watch the A-League occasionally. However, I believe that this fact should not be ignored. It happens that some teams are extremely uncomfortable rivals. The absence of a basic defender and the lack of 2 key WU midfielders is noteworthy. This means problems in the defense and lack of control over the center of the pitch and less possibilities of constructing offensive actions. The guests will also be weakened in defense, but they should have no problems with building offensive actions, because they have all attacking players at their disposal. This information outweighs the hosts' advantage in terms of statistics for the current season. In my opinion, the visitors seem to be the more likely winner before this match. I also think that goals are very likely in this match due to absences in the defense lines of both teams. Since the goal market offers a fairly high price, I decide to go for a goal over.
Published: 14-05-2022, 10:06 CET Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.93 at Pinnacle


Category: Australian football
Date: 14-05-2022
Option: Under / Over
Stake: 5 (tipster's average: 4)




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