Wolverhampton - Brentford    (lost)

As I predicted, Wolverhampton managed to play relatively evenly with Arsenal, and they could easily steal a point with a little luck. Now, however, I choose a completely different variant, as I think we will get a different match picture here, combined with heavy absences in the defense.

At home, Wolverhampton will have to attack more, and I think they can easily create chances against this Brentford team as well. At the same time, Wolverhampton will have problems at the back. Their home games are often open – like against United for example, a completely wild game that could have ended something like 2–6 – and then they struggle defensively.

The main motivation behind the game is anyway that the most important defenders are out: Mosquera with a suspension and Agbadou in the African Championship. There is a big difference in level down to the substitutes. I also considered Brentford victory, but think over 2.5 goals is a slightly better bet, as I am not completely confident in Brentford's defense either. Both teams to score – yes is also an option here.

A total of 17 goals have been scored in the last four head-to-head matches. There also seems to be some smart money on this outcome, and I give the bet a little over 50% chance of winning, with value down to at least 1.92