World Cup 2026    (lost)

Didier Deschamps led France to World Cup glory in 2018 and another final in 2022, and the 2026 World Cup will be his final tournament as France manager. Real Madrid's season was a disappointment but Kylian Mbappe was still on fire offensively, I mean, of course. His lazy defending was probably one of the reasons behind Los Blancos' downfall last season. I expect to be willing to "work" a little more for his country. Even if he does not - at least there is no other "lazy ass" as at Real - Vini Jr.  I stress France have an incredibly deep squad - deeper than any other country - containing high-level options across defence, midfield and attack. Even a few injuries would not significantly weaken them. Also with possibly seven games being played, sometimes in hot and/ or humid conditions rotation and squad depth are very important factors. It seems that the market seems to give this factor enough emphasis. I want to mention one young player in particular. Indeed, I expect Bayer Munich's excellent Michael Olise to make his "international breakthrough!  France are the only team without any actual weaknesses.

Yes, I see France as a little stronger than most recreational bettors probably do but the main rationale behind this pick is to oppose several overvalued "big" football countries.

Spain: The euling champions of Europe deserve to be 2nd-favourites. With healthy N. Williams and Lamine Yamal I rate them the same 21% to win as France. However, both stars are highly questionable in the first rounds and even if they too play neither are probably quite at their best. Without these two Spain's offense would be seriously weakened.

Brazil: Yes, I respect Ancelotti a lot but Brazil did not really impress me in the South American Qualification, finishing in 5th place, a whopping 10 points behind Argentina. Late last year they lost to Japan and played a 1-1 draw against Tunisia in friendlies. Yes, a few days ago they beat Panama 6-2 but generated "only" 3.61 in xG  - priced around 1.10 to win by the bookies. The total shots numbers were 20-16.  Yes, we all know Ancellotti picked Neymar Jr. but he has been injured / far from his best in the last a couple years. I do not believe him to be fit to play 90 minutes, maybe not even 45 mins.. Joao Pedro no - Neymar yes - come on - give me a break! Of course with players like Vini Jr, Cunha and Raphinha Brazil can win it all but they have only 6.5% chance.

Argentina: Messi, at almost 40, has suffered from injuries and is way past his prime! Yes, of course they have a lot of quality and a great team spirit but in terms of pure quality they are not as good as France and Spain. They have a 9% chance of winning - again.

England: Harry Kane is world-class, of course and the squad has a lot of quality. However, the defence is nothing special. It is probably "NOT coming home" - 9% chance only. England have been overvalued on the betting market in every single international tournament in the last 40 years and it is no different here. Tuchel's men will probably be overvalued in many individual matches.

Portugal: A stunningly strong midfield - with some Champions League winners! How much will  C.Ronaldo play this time? His statistics against quality opponents in the biggest European tournaments were not all that great even when he was much younger. In Qatar in 2022 he was benched in some games - as he was clearly a hindrance. In the EURO 2024 he was not terrible but very mediocre, I would say. I'm convinced no other top-10 county would have selected a player of Ronaldo's level. Of course his career needs to be respected, though.

Germany or The Netherlands winning would definitely not be a crazy surprise but both have clear weaknesses and did not really impress in Qatar 2002 or EURO 2024, despite Germany (hosts) pushing Spain  - and Netherlands challenging England well in the Playoffs.

PICK: France 21% to win, odds of around 6.00 are widely available