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Yankees - Nationals    (won)

Due to Time restriction regarding posting picks shorter previews than usual...

Sabathia starting for the Yankees. True workhorse and eating a lot of innings and still useful altough he won't go deep. But that is okay since there is a great bullpen to back him up. 3.59 ERA, he pitched a bit worse than that, but still pretty good. I like his command: 2.34 BB/9 and pretty good 42.4GB%. 1.56 not too good. At home he is a little better, he did not lose at home yet, and his numbers at home are solid: 1-0. 7.63 K/9, 1.23 BB/9, 1.53 HR/9, 3.07 ERA.

Nats are worse against LHP as well, ranked 21th ( against RHP ranked 18th)

So, CC his main weapon is his cutter, this is his main pitch, followed by the slider, sinker and Change. Nationals suck against all those pitches. Ranked 26th against the cutter, 22th against the slider, 15th against the Sinker, 23th against the Change. Nats kill the curve and CC barely throws this.

On the other side Roark starting for the Nats. 3.56 ERA but this should a 4+ ERA if we take a closer look. Solid 7.47 K/9, 1.03 HR/9. However, his 2.87 BB/9 is a command issue. On the road his stuff is worse: 6.15 K/9 and an ERA that should be one point higher than his 3.29 road ERA.

So he throws the Sinker the most, followed by the FA. Guess what? Yankees CRUSH those pitches. They are first against the FA ( together with the Cubbies ) and first against the Sinker in all of baseball.

Also some changes in Roarks split:

Righties SLG .308 off him

Lefties SLG .433 off him

Lefties Gardner, Bird, Didi will all start together with Switch hitters Hicks and Walker.

-Yankees crush RHP anyway, ranked 2nd in advanced stats.

Yankees bullpen topnotch, ranked 2nd (!). What do you expect with Betances and Chapman.

-Nationals' pen average, ranked 11th in advanced stats.

Yankees are clearly favorites and should take this one way or another. Baby bombers from the Bronx is the right play here no matter what.

Published: 12-06-2018, 23:13 CET Pick: Yankees -1
Odds: 1.89 at Pinnacle

Category: MLB baseball
Date: 13-06-2018
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 9)

Four-Seam 13-06-2018, 00:15
For informative purposes... Mengden starting for the A`s. Went with him several times, all times with succes. 3.45 ERA but should be 4+. He has awesome command : 1.26 BB/9 and a solid 1.15 HR/9. His K stuff is poor though: 5.86 K/9 and that is not good when you face this powerfull Houston team. He throws the four-seamer the most and the Astros love that pitch indeed. He faced Houston earlier this year and the Stro`s rocked him with 4 earned runs. Oakland at home and away from home a difference like day and night. On the road they kill it with scoring 5.34RPG. They are ranked 2nd in powerstats on the road, scored more homers than Houston for example. At home however the A`s score just 3.47 RPG. More importantly, ranked just 29th (!). Only the Mets hit worse at home. On the other side Lance McCuller Jr starting for the Astros. Super underrated guy. When you look at him, he has perhaps the best stuff off alll Houston starters. Big movement in his pitches, beautiful curve and a big changeup. I love to watch him. Problem for him are big innings, that kills him. 3.94 season ERA but he pitched better than that. Tremendous 55.3GB% and a huge 9.08 K/9. He pitched 12 innings against the A`s this year and allowed two earned runs. Astros play much better on the road. Astros are 19-14 at home and 23-11 on the road. They come from a road sweep in Arlington. They score 4.15 Runs per game at home and are ranked 17th in hitting data. On the road however they scored 196 runs, more than any other team. That is 5.76 RPG and more importantly, they are ranked 1st (!) in advanced hitting stats. Indeed, best of the best, no team plays better on the road offensively. Mighty Astros all day long.
FightingBets 13-06-2018, 00:48
Good job Four-Seam, I see that you’re doing a lot of work for your bets and I am sur there is people who understand the sport and take your advice seriously
Four-Seam 13-06-2018, 01:30
You see that right @Fightingbets, lot of work, especially those write ups. Thanks man. By the way; great fight by Romero-Whittaker, hm>? you had a good bet there as well. What do you think, Whitaker deserved that win? I watched it also and I think there is no way that Romero lost that one, but that is just my opinion.
FightingBets 13-06-2018, 02:04
One of the best fight of 2018 so far, I think the decision is a one point difference, wich means 48-47 or 47-47, it’s true that Romero had two knockdowns wich making him win the round 3 and round 5 without a doubt. Whitaker has the round 1 and 2. Now the round 4 is close you may score it for romero or whittaker but I give it for wittaker. And the round 5 you may score it 10-8 for Romero with his knockdown and the way he fully dominate the round but once again you dont give a 10-8 like that especially in a championship fight where it’s that close so I dont blame the judge to not scored it 10-8 for romero. So for me it’s either a 48-47 Whittaker or a 47-47 draw. Or a 48-47 Romero if you giving him the 4th round wich was pretty close

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