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Zenit Petersburg - Fenerbahce    (won)


Fener is coming from four straight losses plus they had injury problems. But I'm still willing to take the shot with this team. 
First of all, those four losses were in the tough schedule, all from Spanish opponents. The Turkish team went on Spanish tour and has been trashed by Barcelona, Baskonia and at the end also Real Madrid easily dealt with them. Then Fener got back home and met with Valencia and lost again although was double digits up at halftime. 
But I think Fener could bounce back now, I really do. First of all, injury concerns should be less problem now and secondly, I don't like Zenit team. This Spanish coach on their bench, Xavi Pascual completely "ruined" this team. I mean we know how Zenit looked in the past, typical run & gun team while now with Xavi Pascual in charge, they are the team with slowest pace. With Xavi Pascual Zenit has averaged only 74.4 pts per game. But the result is there, 6-2 so far no matter they have played only three home games. Those home games were the problem, 1-2 at home. Zenit is also among EL worst when it comes to 3-pts shooting (barely above 30%). It was surprising that Xavi Pascual style was giving the result. Cause when ever Zenit played game in 70 pts range, they have won (5-0 in those). Still, this is about handicap. They could win again and I wouldn't have nothing against it. But I don't think Zenit is going to cover. We have decent number of pts on Fenerbahce and with expected idea of Xavi Pascual to "kill" this game too, I wouldn't be surprised to only 70 pts for Fener would be enough to cover this line. 
My experience tells me that underdogs more easily are covering in low scoring games. 

The line is +6.5 while I bought half point and will go with +7. I'm pretty confident that this line will drop to +4.5 pts till tipoff. 

Published: 03-12-2020, 06:57 CET Pick: Fenerbahce +7 pts
Odds: 1.83 at Unibet


Category: European basketball
Date: 03-12-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)




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