I have a different approach here as the forecast should play a big role in this one. First of all, a couple of good wins don't give you the role of being this short, especialy if you played a mear 13 matches in '25 (6-7 W/L). Does Shang has a higher ceiling? Absolutely. BUT, Nuno is a constant top 50 player and can always cause trouble. Shang is sacked with injuries so far in career, he is super talented and versatile, however, his body is like Nishikori's. Fragile and still weak not being able to endure high intensity or extreme conditions. And conditions in Shanghai this year are not extreme, but a pure SURVIVAL. As till now it wasn't already tough, today is the hottest day so far without a single cloud on the sky. 35-6C with over 85% humidity. Top tier disaster. We already saw plenty of medicals, some retired, Fritz and Perricard almost collapsed both in the second set and Rinderknech said that the court feels like sauna, with extreme difficulties to catch a breath. All that is a pure nightmare for Shang who so far had to retire plenty of times because of the same reasons, including Grand Slam matches (mostly Australia). So far, organisers favoured Jerry and scheduled him in night session, however he'll be on court tomorrow at the worst possible time, 14h local time, probably the hottest period of the day. Nuno hasn't showed some concerns so far and had a couple of solid wins. There are plenty of angles to bet in tennis and it is sometimes a guessing game, but I doubt Shang was able to upgrade and overcome his problems in a short span of time, especially being absent for so long. Even without all fo this, this odd setting is ridiculous in my mind, it should be at least 50/50, pick'em so to say.