Ilves vs HIFK    (won)

Ilves welcome visitors from Helsinki for this Finnish (ice-hockey) Liiga battle in Tampere on Friday. This season HIFK are suffering  - once again - from many key players injuries. A total of a whopping 12 players are out at the moment - including the whole 1st offensive line! Even the best IFK roster would be significantly worse than that of Ilves'. One of the best players in Liiga, Jori Lehterä, was injured last Friday against JYP in Jyvaskylä. This is a devastating blow to HIFK also mentally as Jori is a true leader. Against JYP HIFK were okay in the 1st period but after Lehterä's injury HIFK had no chance at all, suffering an embarrassing 0-6 defeat! They are in last place with a pathetic nine points, after ten games. Moreover, their score difference is very bad - 19:37 to be specific. They have failed to score a single goal in their last two matches! In their most recent game they lost to Kalpa 0-3 away from home - as I expected in my free preview posted on X.  The hosts generated 2.65 more in expected goals (xG) and outshot HIFK 31-12! Indeed, without the best forwards the HIFK offense is extremely toothless. Moreover, HIFK do not have even a decent goalie at the moment. Niko Hovinen is too erratic and way past his prime! R. Elias is not Liiga level. Paavo Kohonen is injured at the moment.

Yes, Ilves have been a major disappointment but always have "extra boost" at home against HIFK - the most hated club in Finland. Ilves are currently in 15th place with nine points in their pocket. However, they have been unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). Let's not forget that Ilves were one of the biggest favourites before the season started and will almost certainly climb up the standings as the season progresses.  Even so, I have, of course, lowered their power rating - that reflects the team's pure class with the best possible lineup - significantly from my in-depth preseason analysis. Unlike the bookies a professional never overreacts to early season results and performances. However, the main rationale behind this pick is  still to oppose the incredibly poor HIFK. Ilves have won one of their last three games - HIFK have lost all three of their most recent matches. In their last game Ilves faced one of the favourites to win the Liiga, Lukko, in Rauma. Lukko grabbed a 1-0 win but Ilves generated much more in xG - 2.75-1.48!  Before this they lost to Kärpät, the team with the highest salary budget in Liiga, 2-7 at home. However, the final score is very misleading! Yes, Kärpät deserved to win but the xG numbers were  somewhat balanced - 2.43-3.12 to be precise. Ilves also outshot the visitors 26-20. On the 1st of this month Ilves defeated Vaasan Sport 2-0 on the road - generating 0.43 more in xG in this pretty balanced game as a whole.

BET on: Ilves regulation time win

Odds: 1.60

Estimation: 67%

GOOD LUCK!