Bergs had an excellent week. He won against Korda, Ruud (retirement), Cerundolo and Diallo. Prior to this tournament, his form wasn't specifically good and I think the current run in Shanghai is about to end. His serve can be sloppy and Djokovic will pressure him a lot. From baseline, he has good court coverage and he will remain in rallies. Yet, he remains an average hitter and he will have to play with extra aggression to beat Djokovic. Often when Bergs was in such situations, he lost - that's what I expect today as well.
The only thing about Djokovic is age. He requires more time to recover and his stamina is decreasing. The odds for a straight sets win are terrific because he dropped a set to Munar and Hanfmann. Sinner and Alcaraz are out of the picture so this is a prime opportunity for the veteran to take the title. However, energy management is crucial and he will aim a straight sets win. In terms of tennis mechanics, Djokovic has the edge over Bergs in all aspects.
The Belgian will have extra pressure as he lacks experience at this level. Djokovic should remain composed and his defensive skills will trouble Bergs a lot. I take this as a value bet and I expect a one-sided encounter.
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