Seems like a strech and it is looking on the paper, but this pick has some more depth to it and quite a reasonable foundation.

Although Joker looked better in the clash versus Bergs, his current situation is basically a day to day thing. Every move he makes can be critical at this stage although there is a always a bit acting from his side. Nevertheless, the reallity remains that both Munar and Bergs failed to use the oportunity presented, especially Munar who should have by all parametres a huge physical edge over him in the third set. Instead he folded like a fetus and complained on the press conference afterward. Similar situation with Bergs who with a series of exeptional points managed to get himself into the match when Novak served out for the match, but what followed? A double fault, 2 unforced errors and (I still don't believe it) 4x missed smatch in a row, which was a pivotal point in the match. Joker was frustrated and it could ended ugly for him if Bergs had some actual tennis IQ. But, let's conentrate on what Vacherot has to offer here. And that is stamina, lots of it.

The random challenger dude from Monaco is living the dream, just like Atmane a few weeks/months back. Very similar story and with his cousin Rinderknech by his side. Let me be clear here. The only way Vacherot can upset here is going to distance and with Djokovic clearly gased out and without legs. Period. And it is the main angle I am aiming for in this pick. Vacherot proved out to be one of the (of not THE) most resilient players in brutal Shanghai conditions so far with extraordinary fitness. As the man himself put it:

 "What I'm really happy about is my fitness... My body feels amazing."

Quite a contrast to Djokovics statements:

"I'm concerned too," Djokovic said when told his fans were worried about his health, adding there were "issues that I'm trying to address day by day".

"There's always something happening with the body, pretty much every match that I play right now," 

"I've been struggling quite a bit with energy levels, and just every opportunity that I get, the crowd feels it... I can hear that noise and that energy drives me," Djokovic said.

Now, I would know better than to trust Djokovic from experience, but the man clearly has some issues. He is probably exaggerating like always, butt there are there, believe me. And what it not helping is the fact he will start this match first time in day light at about 16:30h local time. So far, Djokovic was always blessed with night session and cooler temperatures, but he will now have to endure 4-5C more which surely isn't going to his benefit.

Gamewise, it is useless to spend time talking about who has more to offer and who is superior. But a good portion of that comes down the toilet when player isn't in top peak condition to execute that. Nowdays, Djokovic wins most of his matches in the locker room and on mentality. However the line is thin and it literally takes one point to change the entire course of the match. It will be interesting to see of Valentin will chicken out (like most do), but I think he has enough arrogancy (in a good way) to know that he isn't without the chances today and enough intelligence unlike Bergs to know how to tactically set up his game.

Don't get me wrong, Djokovic is BY FAR, the best tennis player to ever picked up the racket and I am surely not gonna be depressed if he nails Vacherot here by some case and goes on to win a title ultimately. BUT, when I see a good value, I am going to go for it, especially because the staking here is quite low.

Let's see what happens.