Nakashima is undoubtedly once again overrated by the bookies here! Medjedovic and Nakashima have played once before, in Belgrade in November 2024. Medjedovic won the match in three sets. Nakashima won only 26% of the return points in this game! Moreover, on indoor hard his return points won percentage has been poor for quite a long time already. The American rarely does well in late season tournaments in Asia.. In his last match he lost to Majcharzak in straight sets, priced around 1.50 to win by the bookmakers. It was a disappointing performance as a whole. He is, at the moment,definitely worse than his ATP Ranking would suggest. With Medjedivic it is the opposite.
In his most recent match Medjedovic faced Rinderknech, the eventual semi-finalist in Shanghai. Medjedovic won the first set and Rinderknech was leading the second set 1-0 when the Serb was unfortunately forced to retire. Before this he lost to Rune, ATP Ranking 11. Indeed, Medjedovic was, of course, the underdog on the betting market. The first set was a close one, decided in a tiebreak. Medjedovic could easilly have taken that set.. Lastly I highlight that Rune is a much better tennis player than Nakashima! Yes, I am willing to accept the risk that Medjedovic might not be 100% fit here.. The bookies seemingly give this factor way too much emphasis!
BET ON: Medjedovic to win
Odds: 2.19
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Probability estimation: 53.50%
GOOD LUCK and thanks for the credits!
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